Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Recent snow and very strong winds have drifted snow into wind slabs that remain above treeline on north and east aspects.  The most dangerous slopes will be north and east aspects that have seen the greatest amount of loading. These wind slabs could be dangerous on their own but could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. You can also trigger a persistent slab avalanche on deeper buried weak layers where the snowpack is shallower.  This will be found in likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings. It may not be the first or second person on the slope but just takes you to find a sweet spot where you're able to impact deeper buried weak layers.  Sticking to wind-sheltered lower-angle terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Recent snow and strong wind have loaded slopes and produced slabs on top of deeper buried weak layers.   In shallow snowpacks (<1.5m) before this storm, depth hoar, the early January facet layer, and faceted crusts continued to remain weak and slow to heal.  These weak layers had been mainly lying dormant during the latest two-week dry period but could become more reactive with this latest load and slab formation.  It will most likely take you finding a shallow spot on the slope near a likely trigger point on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings to trigger a persistent slab avalanche or triggering a wind slab on the surface that then steps down into deeper weak layers.  These avalanches could be very large running well into the flats below and most likely not survivable.  A probe pole can be a useful tool to measure snowpack depths on the slope you plan to play on.  

     

    This is an annotated snowpit from a NNE aspect near treeline that is 140cm deep.  In places where the snowpack remains under 1.5 m deeper persistent weak layers have been slow to heal and continue to remain reactive in long column tests.  These shallow spots on the slope are also where you're more likely to impact the deeper buried weak layers. 

    (2/28/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and very strong winds have created wind slabs at upper elevations.  These slabs could be 2 feet thick, especially on east aspects above treeline. Some slopes have been stripped and scoured back to bare ground while others have been drifted in and loaded.  Identifying wind slabs right now is pretty easy, with lens-shaped slabs that appear smooth or obvious wind drifted pillows. These slabs are mainly hard and will be supportable underfoot, which can often mean that they can break in unpredictable ways oftentimes well above you. Wind slabs have formed on a variety of different surfaces from crusts to near-surface facets and facet crust combos. Avoid steep slopes where you find more than 8 inches of newly drifted snow.  

    Slabs on the surface seemed to be more reactive when there was some form of facet layer, either near-surface facets or a facet crust combo to collapse and propagate underneath the slab. 

    (2/28/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

Sring-like weather is forecasted over the next couple of days with temperatures warming into the upper 30's and low 40's with moderate winds and the intense sun we have here in NM.  Unfortunately, that has left less-than-desirable skiing and riding conditions. At upper elevations, strong winds during the Feb 27th storm stripped and scoured some slopes back to bare ground, while pressing others into firm hard surfaces.  The intense sun and warm temperatures have impacted our solar aspects forming crusts, which leaves us with only wind-sheltered north aspects where you can still find powder.  With another sunny and warm day loose snow avalanches will become a concern. watch for roller balls and pinwheels as these are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet.  These loose wet snow avalanches will typically start in steep terrain around sunbathed rock bands on our solar aspects and fan out as they travel down the slope.  If you notice the snow surface becoming wet, head to a shadier aspect.  It's that time of year to start bringing a scrapper and glob stopper as you transition from wet to dry snow. 

Strong winds during the Feb 7th storm stripped and scoured many slopes and loaded others. This has created pocketed areas of wind-drifted snow that are easy to identify in travels. It's hard to believe, but this wind event stripped a meter plus snowpack back to bare ground.  East aspects above treeline have seen the greatest amount of loading and will be the most suspect slopes today.  The other day in travels I found these slabs to be 10 to 30 cm thick ranging from 4F to pencil hard.  These slabs were not overly reactive like we had suspected, but were able to get them to propagate on specific slopes where there were near surface facets or a facet crust combo beneath the slabs.  There was also a graupel layer present within the wind slab, but I did not find this layer to be reactive in long column tests. Surprisingly the skiing wasn't all that horrible while patching together areas of soft sastrugi making for some pleasant turns. 

The persistent slab avalanche problem continues to remain a concern on slopes where you find an overall shallow snowpack, typically less than 1.5 m deep. Depth hoar near the ground, the early January drought facet layer, and faceted crusts in the middle of the snowpack have been slower to heal and are still within the impact range of a skier or rider.  A notable result from explosive control work the other day in steep terrain below treeline that produced a size 2 avalanche highlights this issue. Many avalanche paths have already slid once and in some cases twice (Peace Sign).  These repeat offenders have a shallower and weaker snowpack and may be more likely to initiate an avalanche.

The birds are chirping early this morning at my house and spring-like weather is setting in for us as we turn the calendar to March. Today should be the better day over the next several as winds ramp back up for the weekend. It's not the most exciting weather forecast but hopefully, we'll see a return of winter-like weather next week. Until then if you are getting out continue to evaluate terrain and snow carefully, identifying features of concern.     

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