Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Recent snowfall and wind have crafted slabs 1-2 feet thick, primarily at upper elevations. New snow may also mask harder, old slabs that remain sensitive to triggering. Look for evidence of wind, such as drifts, stiffened surfaces, or cornices. These spots also hold a higher potential for triggering a larger avalanche breaking deeper in the snowpack. Consider moving to sheltered, low-angle terrain if you observe signs like cracking or collapsing, though these signs may not present before an avalanche releases, particularly as time passes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and consistent winds continue to form soft slabs 1-2 feet thick that may be sensitive to a person's or machine's weight today. It will be more likely to trigger these slabs in terrain over 35° in steepness and where the wind has deposited the new snow. Larger triggers, such as groups and snowmobiles, will also increase the odds of triggering. Multiple tracks can be on a slope before it releases. 

    Slabs will have formed further down and across slopes than usual. Wind-affected areas can be identified by pillowed drifts or dunes, cornices along ridge crests, running down sub-ridges, and stiffened snow surfaces. Watch for signs of unstable snow, such as recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and whumping. 

    These creek drainages have previously avalanched, and debris was noted in the creekbed, in addition to these recent smaller cornice/wind slab avalanches. While Togwotee trends into Moderate hazard, terrain trap features like this should be considered cautiously or avoided altogether. 

    Photo: Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Snow that fell at the beginning of February has built slabs 2-4 feet thick. These slabs sit on various interfaces, including crusts on solar aspects and facets on shaded aspects. Over time, the likelihood of triggering slabs at this interface becomes less likely. However, activating this layer remains possible, particularly in very steep terrain or where an avalanche involving the recent snow increases the stress on these deeper layers in the middle of the snowpack.

    Weak snow exists near the base of the snowpack but remains dormant. Avalanches failing at or near the ground are unlikely and would fall into the outlier category.

    While the likelihood is on the low end of the scale, it remains vital to stack the odds in your favor by following safe travel protocol. Travel one at a time across steep terrain, use islands of safety, and communicate with your partners.

    (2/4/2025)

    A slab avalanche that likely released on the Jan 31 interface, estimated to have occured on Feb 4.

Avalanche Discussion

Since the beginning of January, snowpacks across the state have nearly doubled. Recent snowfall has fallen on older, weak snow from January (~3-4 deep), in addition to a recent interface consisting of crusts/facets in the top portion of the snowpack (1-2 feet deep). This layer in the upper snowpack is the primary concern and remains reactive, trending stubborn to triggering. Though time will illustrate decreasing instability, the snowpack may not show us its cards while in this tapering process. This puts us, as backcountry users, in a particularly low-feedback scenario. Avalanches occur, get covered up by more snowfall, are blown in by the wind, happen overnight, go unreported, and are never seen. Understanding that we see a small spectrum of what happens in a mountain range on a given day or storm cycle is important. Even with so many user observations- helpful to the community and for which we are incredibly grateful- many have a bias toward frequented locations. They may be less representative of deeper or less visited areas. Keep this in mind when making travel plans today.  Snow will be less reactive over time, but uncertainty as to exactly which slopes in a range will stay just reactive enough for longer is unknown. Expect to find unstable snow in very steep, wind-loaded terrain.

If you see avalanche activity today, please consider submitting an observation HERE. Observations allow everyone to gain a better and more complete understanding of conditions. Thanks!

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