Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

There are two concerns in the Summit Lake zone. The first is the possibility of triggering a very large avalanche on weak snow buried in the bottom half of the snowpack. These avalanches can be anywhere from 2 to 6' deep, and although they are becoming more stubborn it is still a major concern for today. We're also paying close attention to the wind slabs that have formed with the northwest winds that have been blowing since the middle of the week, which may still remain reactive today.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The Avalanche Rescue Workshop at Glen Alps has been POSTPONED to Sunday, February 9th.  The workshop is 100% free of charge and all experience levels are welcome. Click HERE for more information.

We're on a brewery tour next week! Come out for two free evenings of conversations about the world of snow and avalanches:

  • State of the Snowpack talk - Tuesday, February 4th, 6-7pm at Onsight Brewing in Anchorage. Join Dr. John Sykes and Mary Gianotti for a night of snowpack discussion at a new venue! More details HERE. 
  • Forecaster Chat - Thursday, February 6th, 6-7:30 p.m. at Girdwood Brewing Co. in Girdwood. Andrew Schauer will discuss recent CNFAC research and highlight ways it can help your backcountry game. Details HERE.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    The main concern in the Summit Lake zone is the possibility of triggering a very large avalanche on weak snow buried in the bottom half of the snowpack. The northwest winds that have been blowing for most of the week continue to add stress to this problematic snowpack, and that is increasing the likelihood of triggering a big avalanche. These deep slab avalanches rarely give warning signs even when conditions are unstable, but we know from recent avalanche activity and from what we've been tracking in snowpits that the structure is still poor. 

    The good news is that we are seeing these layers begin to gain strength, and it is looking like they should become less and less likely in the long term. For now, we're focusing on this problem and managing terrain accordingly. This means avoiding bigger terrain and giving the snowpack more time to heal.

    (1/29/2025)

    This is an example of the poor snowpack structure we've been tracking in the Summit Lake zone. Pit from Wednesday on Colorado Ridge.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Our second concern is the same type of avalanches that we saw yesterday in Turnagain Pass  - wind slabs that have formed over the past two days that are around 1 to 2 feet deep. Some of these are becoming more stubborn, but may still be reactive in isolated terrain as we head into the weekend. You can manage this problem by avoiding wind-loaded terrain and looking for stable snow and better surface conditions in terrain that has been sheltered from recent winds. Be wary of any slopes with stiff or punchy snow on the surface, especially if you notice any shooting cracks or collapsing. The most likely places to run into trouble will be in steep upper-elevation terrain just below ridgelines, convex rolls, or in loaded gullies.

    As the quiet weather makes it easier to pursue bigger objectives, keep in mind even a small avalanche can have severe consequences in steep terrain.

    Cornices: Last weekend's storm was followed by northwesterly winds over the week, building large cornices on many aspects. These often catch people by surprise, breaking back much further from the edge than we'd expect. Keep that in mind if you are traveling along ridgelines, and be sure to limit spending time under them since they can release naturally.

    Glide avalanches: We have noticed many glide cracks opening up again during the cold and clear weather this week. The only one that has released that we are aware of was on the south end of Seattle Ridge on Thursday. These avalanches are unpredictable and very large, so it's important to avoid spending any time under open glide cracks. 

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