Avalanche forecast

Flathead Range & Glacier NP

Flathead Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Warm temperatures, fresh snow, and strong wind make it possible to trigger a large avalanche on buried weak layers. Slides are most likely where you see blowing snow or rain. Move off of steep slopes if you find snow that is wet or cracks under your weight.

The danger will rise overnight as temperatures continue to warm, winds strengthen, and precipitation intensifies. We have issued an AVALANCHE WATCH for all zones in anticipation of very dangerous avalanche conditions. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Warm temperatures, fresh snowfall, and strong winds make it increasingly likely to trigger an avalanche on weak layers buried 1 to 3 feet deep.  Southwesterly winds will deposit snow onto typical leeward slopes at upper elevations, adding further stress to weak layers.

    You can trigger an avalanche on steep slopes or connected lower-angle terrain.  Likely trigger points include slopes with obviously wind-affected snow, convex roll-overs, or rocks poking through the snow's surface.

    Collapsing (whumpfing), shooting cracks, and a remotely triggered avalanche, have been concentrated in the Whitefish Range. Signs of instability may not always be obvious, and digging is the best way to identify if the slope you are on harbors a slab and a weak layer.

    Today's snow and wind may be sufficient to produce fresh Wind Slabs.  Small surface slides can trigger a larger avalanche on buried weak layers. Slabs 8+ inches thick can be hazardous in their own right. Steer away from wind-affected snow along ridges, below saddles, and in open bowls. 

     

     

    (2/13/2025)

    A large natural avalanche triggered by a natural cornice fall from the ridge above. The intial debris stepped down to older weak layers as it ran down slope. SS-NC-D2.5R2-O

    Photo: Flathead Avalanche Center

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Warm temperatures below 5000' have already moistened the snow surface. Rollerballs and small point releases mean it is possible for wet snow to sluff on steep slopes. These will be most dangerous above terrain traps - like exposed rocks and vegetation - or abrupt slope changes - like roads or creek beds- where even small amounts of snow can pile up deeply. 

    Although rain is not anticipated today, understand that rain on snow is an instant recipe for avalanches. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended if and wherever you encounter rain today. 

Avalanche Discussion

Today, an approaching Atmospheric River is knocking at the door. Tomorrow, the door may blow off the hinges. 

Precipitation will start today with some modest accumulations. Winds will continue to crank out of the Southwest. Recently formed surface crusts have likely limited blowing snow and stunted wind slab formation. However, today's snowfall and wind could be sufficient to build fresh slabs on leeward slopes.  In any case, wind-loading will increase the sensitivity of buried weak layers.

Forecasting the rain/snow line is a fickle business. We can confidently say that the freezing level will climb higher this weekend, but there is uncertainty regarding how high and fast. Pay attention to the incoming moisture, and be prepared to pack it up if you encounter rain.  

Very dangerous avalanche conditions could develop this weekend.  We have issued an AVALANCHE WATCH. Check out NWS Missoula's weather briefing for more information on what to expect.  It's going to get messy. 

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