Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Another day of active weather is keeping the avalanche danger elevated.  Natural avalanches are likely today in the upper elevations, where strong easterly winds and new snow are building fresh wind and storm slabs.  In the mid-elevation band (~1,500 to 2,500'), rain and new snow are adding weight to a layer of weak snow now buried 2-3' below the surface.  While this is becoming more difficult to affect by a human, it's not out of the question that a skier or snowmachiner could trigger a very large avalanche today.

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CHUGACH STATE PARK: Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in Chugach State Park. New snow and increasing winds have formed fresh wind slabs over a weak, faceted snowpack. Human-triggered avalanches are likely in wind-loaded terrain, and avalanches may step down into deeper persistent weak layers, producing large and dangerous slides. See the updated outlook from Chugach State Park for more info.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: A large avalanche cycle occurred with the last major storm on January 14 to 16, with very large avalanches occurring on many of the slopes in the Summit Lake area.

    There are numerous avalanche problems today due to active weather and a well-documented persistent weak layer buried deeper in the snowpack. If you're still keen on recreating in the backcountry, you'll likely be spending the majority of your time in the 1,500 to 2,500' elevation band in the Summit Lake zone today.  This is where you'll find the best visibility and surface conditions.  Unfortunately, this is also where we're finding the persistent weak layer (crust/facet combo) still very much intact and producing unstable results in our snowpits.   Currently buried ~2-3' deep, this layer is becoming more difficult for a skier or snowmachiner to trigger. It is less likely to give us the feedback we yearn for, such as shooting cracks or big whumpfs, before avalanching.  The slab is deep enough now that if a skier or rider were to initiate an avalanche on this buried weak layer, it would be catastrophic.  Trigger points, such as small trees or rocks breaking the snow surface, are the areas most likely to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche.  If travelling in the mid-elevation band, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making will be essential.

    (1/24/2026)

    It's becoming less likely that we'll get the telltale signs of an unstable snowpack the deeper the persistent weak layer gets buried.   A lack of red flags doesn't mean our snowpack is any safer given the current setup. Photo: East-facing slope around 2200' on Fresno.

    Photo: Andy Moderow

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Today's storm is expected to favor upslope locations on the eastern Kenai Peninsula.  Summit Lake tends to pick up more snow and wind than Turnagain Pass with this pattern.  If this verifies and storm intensity peaks this afternoon, storm slabs and wind slabs are likely to be reactive to our weight.  Keep in mind that a smaller storm or wind slab avalanche could be enough to trigger a much deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche, discussed above. 

    Cornices: Cornices have been unusually small this winter in many of the usual places, but the warmer storms and active weather we've experienced in the latter half of January are definitely adding weight and instability to these backcountry bombs.  Be aware of corniced ridges, both travelling below and on top, as these tend to break much further back than expected. 

    (1/29/2026)

    Forecasted snow totals for the 24-hr period between Thursday at 3 am and Friday at 3 am.  Unusual, but Summit Lake is forecasted to be the precip winner by tomorrow morning.

    Photo: National Weather Service

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