Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions persist as recent snowfall and northerly winds have continued to load a weak snowpack that is slow to adjust. The most likely areas to trigger an avalanche are on northerly-to-easterly-facing slopes and some wind-loaded southerly-facing slopes. Obvious signs of instability, such as cracking and collapsing, have been sporadic, so don't count on those early warning signs. You can find reduced avalanche risk on southerly facing slopes that lack additional wind-loading and lower elevation terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A mix of depth hoar, facets, and faceted crusts buried 2 to 3 feet deep are the weak layers for this avalanche problem. Their sensitivity to triggering varies from reactive to stubborn across the forecast area. Snowpack structure is variable due to early-season droughts, record-warm temperatures, rain, and past extreme wind events. As a result, expect inconsistent feedback as you move across aspects, elevations, or even different parts of the same slope. Cracking and collapsing are obvious signs of instability, but those early warning signs are decreasing and may not occur before an avalanche releases. Persistent slabs can break far above you and remotely from lower-angle terrain connected to steeper terrain. The most reliable way to manage this problem is by choosing slopes less than 30 degrees. Northerly-facing slopes below ~10,500ft offer a reduced risk of triggering, as stronger crusts often cap weak layers. 

    A large, remotely triggered avalanche that broke on weak layers near the ground last Monday above West Brush Creek.  (1/6/2026) 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Recent northerly winds have formed wind slabs on southerly-facing slopes and a few lower-elevation terrain features from winds flowing through the valleys. These wind slabs are mostly small in size. There is an additional lower likelihood but higher consequence for a wind slab to step down to deeper crusts on upper-elevation southerly-facing slopes and become larger than expected.

    A small wind slab on the lee side of a terrain feature in Whasington Gulch. 1/10. Photo: Brie Yost

Avalanche Discussion

Frequent stormy weather since Christmas has produced multiple natural avalanche cycles and recent human-triggered avalanches such as West Brush Creek and Mount Axtell.  The avalanche data is a good example of the potentially large and deadly size of recent persistent slab avalanches. This active weather has kept a strain on buried weak layers and continued to build thicker slabs. Here are a couple of interesting data points: at Schofield Pass in the NW Mountain Forecast area, 35% of the winter's snowpack has accumulated since January 1st, while 30% of the winter's snowpack has accumulated at the Butte Snotel in the SE Mountains. It has been nice to be back in the flow of winter storms, but notable loading has occurred to the below-average, weak snowpack. 

While dangerous avalanche conditions prevail across the forecast area, some areas offer lower avalanche risk. Recent observations have highlighted good riding and a lower risk of triggering an avalanche on some southerly-facing slopes, such as this observation in the Southern Ruby Range or this example on Mt Baldy. While others have found similar conditions on low-elevation northerly and easterly-facing slopes, thanks to thicker crusts buried in the snowpack at lower elevations. Such as these observations from Gothic, Washington Gulch and Snoddgrass. 

This fresh weekly summary offers more information on recent snowpack and weather events. 

Upcoming Outreach Events:  

Jan 10 Trailhead Day: Snodgrass 10 am-2 pm

Jan 13 Fireside Chat:  Kim Grant from Silverton Mountain at Zuni West Brewing 5-7 pm

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