Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Triggering an avalanche up to 1.5' deep on a buried weak layer is most likely on slopes that have received 6"+ of new snow or in wind-loaded areas at upper elevations near ridgelines or convex rolls. Where only a few inches of new snow have fallen in the past few days, triggering an avalanche will be less likely but still possible. With our current snowpack setup, remote triggering an avalanche from low-angle terrain onto an adjacent steeper slope is common. Sticking to low-angle terrain and avoiding terrain traps - where even a small avalanche can have high consequences - are good practices to limit your exposure to this hazard. 

Chugach State Park has received up to a foot of new snow, with more on the way today. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely in areas with 6 to 12" or more of new snow or recent wind loading. We recommend sticking to simple, low-angle terrain while the storm continues to add stress to the snowpack. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the East Turnagain Arm, Girdwood, and Turnagain Pass.

Our second Forecaster Chat of the season is coming up this Thursday, Jan. 8 at the Girdwood Brewery. The event is free, and the show will start at 6:00 pm. Come on down! More info here.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent avalanches: The last reported avalanche activity was last Wednesday, when avalanches were triggered in many locations on the skier's side and motorized side of Turnagain Pass. Including Sunburst, Tincan, Seattle Ridge, Goldpan, and Super Bowl.

    The snowfall that started yesterday has added about 4 to 8" of very low-density snow (0.2 to 0.5" water) to the snowpack, with the most new snow in Girdwood and Summit Lake. Anchorage has been the real winner in this storm, with about 15" of new snow at Indian Pass SNOTEL so far (1" water) and more on the way today. Girdwood could also see another 4 to 6" of low-density snow today (0.25 to 0.5" water), with areas on the Kenai Peninsula expected to get an additional 2 to 4" of snowfall (0.1 to 0.25" water).

    This new snow is falling onto a very weak snowpack, with several layers of facets that formed during the prolonged cold snap in December and early January. Even though this storm has not added a huge amount of weight to the snowpack, we expect natural avalanches to be possible and human-triggered avalanches to be likely today on faceted snow about 0.5 to 1.5' deep. These could fail on facets under a crust (ice crust at lower elevations and wind crust at higher elevations) about a foot deep, or on weak faceted snow that was on the surface prior to this latest storm. These weak layers are widespread and have shown signs of being very unstable in our recent field tests. 

    (1/4/2026) Photo: John Sykes

    Snowpack setup at 3000' on Cornbiscuit prior to the new snow. There are plenty of weak layers in the snowpack to cause avalanches in areas where new snow and wind loading are adding stress. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Average wind speeds have been light so far during this storm, ranging from 5 to 15 mph, but gusts up to 40 mph at upper elevations are enough to move this low-density snow into wind slabs on leeward slopes. These wind-loaded slopes could be sensitive to human-triggered avalanches up to 1' deep today. Triggering a small wind slab could be enough to cause a larger avalanche on a deeper weak layer (problem 1). 

    In sheltered areas, dry loose avalanches (sluffs) from the very low-density surface snow are very likely but typically not large enough to bury a person. 

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