Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The main concern is triggering an avalanche on a weak layer of snow buried up to 1 to 2' deep. People triggered multiple avalanches on this layer earlier this week, many of them remotely from low-angle terrain connected to steeper slopes. Most of these have not been big enough to bury a person, but they could have serious consequences if they were to carry you through terrain traps like rocks, trees, cliffs, or into gullies or depressions that would collect more debris.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The National Weather Service has issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the East Turnagain Arm, Turnagain Pass, and the Kenai Peninsula.

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent avalanches: Since Wednesday, there have been human-triggered avalanches on Sunburst, Tincan, Seattle Ridge, Goldpan, and Super Bowl. We also saw natural activity from earlier in the week on Seattle Ridge, Eddie's,  and Tincan. The last reported avalanche activity occurred on Wednesday.

    We're now five days out from our last loading event, but there is still a good chance that a person will be able to trigger an avalanche on a layer of weak, faceted snow. This developed during our December drought and is now buried around 10-12" deep on average, but up to 2' deep in some wind-loaded terrain. Multiple human-triggered avalanches failed on this layer earlier in the week, and we expect a person could still trigger a similar avalanche today.

    From what we have seen so far, these avalanches are unlikely to be large enough to bury a person. But they can still have severe consequences on slopes with terrain traps in avalanche paths. This includes features like cliffs, trees, or rocks, which can cause severe trauma if you are carried through them. Or it could involve gullies, creeks, or open glide cracks, which could collect debris from a relatively small avalanche and bury a person.

    You can avoid this problem entirely by sticking to low-angle terrain. If this is your strategy, be aware of the potential to trigger an avalanche on this layer remotely, from low-angle terrain connected to steeper slopes overhead. If you choose to travel in steeper terrain, it will be important to identify and avoid slopes with those terrain traps discussed above. 

    Dry Loose Avalanches: There is plenty of loose snow on the surface, which will easily produce dry loose avalanches (sluffs). Similar to our persistent slab problem, these are unlikely to bury a person but could have bigger consequences if you get caught and carried. If you're planning on braving the cold to climb ice in Portage, this will be something to be very aware of, since an ice-filled gully would be a perfect example of a terrain trap.

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