Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Deep snow continues to pile up. Loose dry avalanches may be easy to initiate on steep slopes, and could entrain lots of snow. Be cautious around larger features facing the north half of the compass, here, if you are unlucky, you could trigger a sleeping dragon on deeply buried crusts or facets. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Most places hold deep, cohesionless powder, but you may find some areas with slightly stiffer snow. Look and feel for signs of drifting such as pillowed snow, cornices, and sculpted features near ridgelines, especially in exposed alpine terrain. Wind direction has been flip-flopping back and forth from east to west, and temperatures have been rising and cooling. You could find minor shallow storm slab instabilities due to the nature of the slight temperature swings. Use small, inconsequential test slopes and snowpack tests to determine if the new snow is cohesive and could break as a slab. 

    The potential for triggering deeper, surprising avalanches on older layers of crusts and facets is unlikely, but is not null. This 'sleeping dragon' may stay asleep for now, but it should be in the back of your mind before entering big terrain. Large, steep slopes that face NW-NE above 4,700ft may be the most likely places to trigger this deeper weak layer. If triggered, the crown could be 3-6ft deep at this point and the resulting avalanche could be deadly. Gulp. 

    With all these, we're talking about slab avalanches. Heed signs of danger such as shooting cracks, loud audible Whumphs, and pay attention to signs of recent avalanches as you travel in this relatively young, weak, snowpack that is actively growing deeper by the day.

    (11/30/2022)

    Fairly wide, natural slab avalanche in the Baker Backcountry on Wednesday. Photo: Lee Lazzara

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Loose avalanches may be easy to trigger on very steep slopes, and could entrain a significant amount of snow on larger features. Stay alert in steep terrain and stop once in a while to let snow 'sluff' as needed. These avalanches could push you into dangerous areas like creek bottoms or other terrain traps if you're not paying attention. You could also be injured by getting pushed into shallowly buried logs and rocks. If you don't want to deal with managing these avalanches,  it may be best to avoid steep terrain. 

    (11/20/2020) Small loose dry avalanches from a previous season. Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

Stevens Pass picked up 20" of snow with 1.3" water as of 4pm on the 30th (since the storm start on 11/29). With a few breaks during the day, another round of snowfall has begun. Snowfall looks to become more scattered and showery during the day on Thursday and visibility may improve in the afternoon. The snow was reportedly 'too deep' to ski most slopes on Wednesday. With this in mind, make sure to stay within earshot or visual of partners. Tree wells are getting deeper, and plentiful buried snags, creeks, and rocks exist. It's still early season, and the snowpack is relatively shallow and unconsolidated.

Layers of weak snow and slick crusts were buried by a series of storms in mid to late November. These have not been a problem for avalanches since their initial burial but because of their persistent nature, professionals continue to closely monitor this layer as more and more piles up above it. Explosive testing on a few slopes on Wednesday produced minimal activity, but that doesn't mean we can 'ski it if it's white'. On Tuesday, observers within the boundaries of Stevens Pass resort found two northerly slopes that harbored weak, larger (1.5mm) facets near the ground. A couple profile sites done in different areas by different people showed unstable test results. This is strong evidence that this layer is not ready to be trusted yet. Last week, an observer found the same layer on similar slopes near Lichtenberg Mountain. This layer is variable in nature, and other observations report that the layer near the ground has turned to melt forms and is strong.  

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