Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Conditions overall are rated as Moderate in the Selkirk and Cabinet Mountains today and the most likely place where you would trigger an avalanche is on steep northwest through northeast facing slopes slightly down from the ridgetops where last weeks storm snow buried a surface hoar layer about one foot deep.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Brian Hilland and I took the sleds up to Round Top via Lightning and Wellington Creeks yesterday.  It was a beautiful day in the sun.  We found good surface snow conditions in the trees and just below the ridgetops.  Surface snow was last weeks storm and this has buried a layer of surface hoar.  We could not get it to fail in our pit tests but we did reveal a layer of graupel that failed at about 16 inches deep.  We did not see any shooting cracks or hear whumphing on our way to the top and felt pretty good about stability on the south and east aspects where we checked the snow.  We hopped over on to the north and as I fell I put a pretty good load on that slope with no results, thankfully.  I do suspect that the surface hoar layer could be more touchy 500 feet down the slope on north aspects so watch yourself if you commit.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You'll hear us talking about this persistent weak layer for a while and the cold weather is going to prolong the agony about this problem.  What we're dealing with is a structural problem.  We have built our house on a foundation of chips.  We continue to build up our snowpack over this weak layer.   In the Cabinets right now we are not seeing failure at this layer nor are we seeing evidence of avalanches on this layer.  There is a remote chance that you could trigger an avalanche on this layer and that would be on very steep, open, unsupported slopes; like a north face of Roman Nose or Gunsight or Scotchman.  The more likely risk is falling through the snow in a weak, shallow spot and into a boulder field.  Ouch.  We will need a pineapple express to lay down some heavy snow and compress the facets to get rid of this layer.  Otherwise, we may have to live with it all winter.

Avalanche Discussion

There is a chance of snow tonight and tomorrow so we may bury another layer of surface hoar.  That would make three buried surface hoar layers in our snowpack.  Not a great situation since if you trigger one it is more likely to trigger another.  Brian and I were able to get some great turns off the top on a SE aspect.  We stayed on the edge of the trees to salvage the good snow and stay off the middle of the open face.  The top was wind scoured and the snow had a hollow feeling to it.  There was one spot I was concerned of falling through to the rocks below.  These mine fields are a real concern so be careful when traveling near the summits.  Temperatures will drop considerably in the days to come and this will preserve our powder snow but will also weaken the snowpack structure.

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