Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Winds blew for three days and triggering a wind slab avalanche will be possible on loaded leeward slopes and terrain features near and above treeline. Avoid cornices, convex pillows of wind-drifted snow, and steep slopes that have a continuous surface of harder, rounded, and rippled snow. 

At elevations below 10,000', generally low avalanche hazard exists. Small isolated pockets of instability may still be lurking, so avoid steep loaded slopes that are perched above gullies, canyons, and other terrain traps. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    With moderate to strong winds from a variety of directions this week, expect to find wind slabs on any aspect near and above treeline.  Expect to also find many scoured areas, especially above treeline.  On Friday, some cracking was noted near treeline in small wind slabs on western and southwestern aspects. 

    The cold temperatures have delayed the bonding of storm and wind slabs to the old snow surface. On Friday we also found near surface facets at the old/new snow interface near treeline on a west aspect. Instability tests indicated a lack of failure probagation at that location, but pay close attention to the new/old snow interface, it's only 20-40cm below the snow surface.  

    Watch for chalky and funky feeling slabs where harder snow overlays softer snow. Wind slabs can also be very hard and may present a hollow drum-like sound as you traverse a slope. Retreat from steep slopes with shooting cracks. 

    Many slopes above and near treeline have been stripped of snow, but expect to find some slopes with new wind-deposited snow. Some near treeline northerly slopes may have survived the recent wind-stripping event. On Thursday, the Telemark Path on the north face of Fremont appeared to have an old wind slab that was not chewed up by the north winds. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Some slabs that overlay depth hoar/basal facets, have gained significant strength and are pencil+ hard. It will be difficult to deform those slabs and collapse the faceted layers (creating an avalanche). Also, these faceted layers near the ground have strengthened over the last few weeks. Given these developments, it is unlikely that a person will directly trigger a persistent slab avalanche. However, human-triggered wind slab avalanches may have enough force to step down, creating propagating failures in the weak layer of basal facets, resulting in larger avalanches. 

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Cornices have formed on some difficult-to-access ridgelines near and above treeline. Avoid traveling below or on top of cornices.  They break further back than ya think, as illustrated by the crack forming in the above cornice icon. 

Avalanche Discussion

We are 72 hours out since the last snow accumulated, but winds have moved snow for the last three days. 

Near surface facets (NSFs) were observed prior to the St. Valentine Storm.  On Friday we found 30cm of new snow over NSFs on a westerly slope near treeline.  Instability tests indicated no failure propagation in the facets, but the slab was also soft and not cohesive. These NSFs may be more reactive where overlayed by mature, cohesive slabs. 

Before the St. Valentine's Day Storm, some southerly slopes below 9500' were bare ground due to wind and melting. Previous winds had stripped some above treeline slopes down to rocks and cinders. 

The last known large avalanches occurred in mid-January during the MLK Storm Cycle. These large natural avalanches resulted from failures in the basal facets/depth hoar mentioned above. The last known avalanche occurred between January 23-27 and was a relatively small wind slab. 

SupportIf every person that reads our forecast page donated just $10/year, then KPAC would be fully funded and could grow, providing daily forecast updates all season. https://kachinapeaks.org/Support

Regions covered