Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Cooling temperatures and fresh snowfall will build shallow wind slabs you can trigger. Focus your attention on active wind loading and lens-shaped pillows below sharp cornices. If you're below the rain/snow line, use simple slope tests to check for wet snow instabilities.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Around 3" of snowfall in the northern Olympics combining with moderate ridgeline winds will build small fresh slabs. With temperatures hovering around the freezing mark at 5000 ft, expect significantly more wind transport as you head higher. These slabs will overly Saturday's saturated surface snow, which may or may not begin to refreeze overnight. Note the difference in snow depth from one side of the ridge to the other to gauge the degree of wind redistribution. Actively loading slopes and the slopes beneath fresh, sharp cornices are the surest ways to identify the drifts building just to the lee sides of ridgelines. Take advantage of inconsequential test slopes to evaluate the snow above the 1/30 interface. 

    Example: Scoured slopes, sculpted snow show evidence of wind transports snow. Active plumes highlight the actively loading problem areas.

    Photo: Sam Luthy Siemens

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Although we're expecting dry snow problems to take center stage, wet avalanche activity might persist if temperatures are slow to cool Saturday night into Sunday or if snow levels fluctuate during the day on Sunday. If you travel to portions of the southern or eastern Olympics, expect more liquid and more snow above the Late January Interface. The Buckinghorse Snotel at 4500 ft in the Southern Olympics saw an 8" increase in snow depth Wednesday night, followed by 1-2" of liquid precipitation Thursday night through Friday.  If you find more than 6" of wet, sloppy snow above the Late January Interface, push some snow down a steep slope before exposing yourself to consequential terrain. Cooling temperatures at upper elevations and low snow coverage at lower elevations mostly limit this problem to the middle elevations.

    (1/31/2026)

    Example: While this avalanche down by Mt Hood on Saturday is larger than we expect in most parts of the Olympics, the mechanics of destabilized saturated snow above a crust are the same. The longer the slope, the larger the avalanche.

    Photo: Joe Dellaporta

Avalanche Discussion

Hurricane Ridge picked up 0.18" of liquid water Saturday morning with temperatures around 40F. ONP rangers reported 20 cm of boot penetration in saturated snow where the rain broke down the surface crusts, but minimal signs of destabilization. Prior to the weekend, Hurricane Ridge received around 0.75" of water equivalent since the two-week dry spell ended Tuesday evening. The first third of that moisture brought 2-3" of sticky, higher density snow Tuesday night through Wednesday night above 4800 ft. The remainder came as liquid at middle elevations. Saturated snow sits above the Late January Interfaces (crusts in the Hurricane Ridge area), formed by over 2 weeks of dry weather. Late last week, shaded aspects had 2.5" crusts with decomposing 0.5 mm facets below them although this snow may has likely become saturated given the wet wether. 

We're not sure whether ongoing rainfall has given renewed lubrication to old glide activity, but we're not going to hang out under glide cracks until the rain stops and temperatures cool off for more than a few days. Keep giving brown frowns respect on the slopes below and see some photos in the gallery:

  • A large 1.5-2 meter deep open glide crack was reported on 01/18 on a NE aspect at 5600 ft off the road to obstruction point.
  • A glide crack was observed, in North Bowl just below Sunrise Point on 01/17. The timing of the crack opening remains uncertain.
  • A large glide avalanche was reported on 01/15 on a steep N-NW aspect on the trail to Hurricane Hill (Steep and Icy Path). The exact timing of the avalanche is unknown.

Photos in the gallery show plenty of patches of bare ground in the forsts below 4500 ft, discontinuous travel near ridgelines, and limited coverage on sun-exposed aspects. Keep the ongoing "early season" coverage in mind as you travel.

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