Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Heavy and continuous snowfall has formed fresh slabs of snow on all slopes, and these slabs are thicker and more dangerous as you move higher in elevation, where drifting has been more significant. Triggering an avalanche within the new snow has the chance to break deeper into a variety of weaker snow layers and produce a larger, more destructive avalanche. If you choose to recreate in the mountains, stick to wind-sheltered areas like flat open meadows or slopes around 30 degrees that are not directly connected to steeper terrain above you until the snowpack has more time to settle.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Abundant new snowfall in the previous 48 hours has delivered an additional 1 to 2+ feet of snow across the mountains, creating dangerous avalanche conditions and reactive storm slabs. While the recent storm and snowfall will start to taper off on Friday, the sensitivity and destructive potential of human-triggered avalanches remain. Slab depth and sensitivity will increase as you gain in elevation, where snow totals are greater, and strong winds from the west to southwest have drifted snow into even larger and more cohesive slabs.

    Expect to find these thicker and more sensitive slabs on the downwind sides of ridges and within steep mid-slope terrain features that are susceptible to cross-loading. Seeing a textured surface or experiencing cracking that shoots in front of your skis or boards indicates that the winds have been at work and have stiffened the storm snow. An avalanche that fails within the newer storm snow holds the potential to step down into even deeper buried weak layers, producing an even larger and dangerous avalanche. 

    A skier-triggered avalanche in the Silver-Valley Bitterroots failed within the new storm snow on a steep mid-slope terrain feature where winds had stiffened the slab. 

    January 8, 2026.

    Photo: Izzy Davis

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Since the New Year, the mountains have received 2 to 3+ feet of snow, which has created thick slabs that are now stacked above several weaker snow layers in the upper snowpack. Buried surface hoar from January 1st and faceted rain crusts from late-December are the most vulnerable layers for an avalanche near the surface to break deeper into. These layers continue to demonstrate concerning failure potential in snowpack tests. 

    Your chances to awaken one of these sleeping dragons increase in areas where the snowpack is shallower and where these grains are closer to the surface, but will propagate into deeper snow. Common trigger spots exist near rocky outcrops, near slab margins, and on the backsides of steep rollovers. With the added load of new snow, an avalanche on these layers will be large, destructive, and difficult to escape. Uncertainty regarding these interfaces should be given the respect it deserves by avoiding traveling on or below steep slopes as you move through the mountains.

    (1/6/2026)

    Annotated photo of snowpack test results on a west-facing slopes around 6,000 feet. West Cabinet Mountains. January 6, 2025.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

Avalanche Discussion

2026 kicked off with a strong start and brought with it the most potent winter storm system we have seen yet this season. The storm and associated snowfall will lose significant speed today as it begins its migration out of the area, but heightened sensitivity within the new snow remains a concern.

Since snowfall started on January 2nd, impressive totals have stacked up across the forecast region. Weather stations are reporting 28 to 30 inches in the Selkirk Mountains and 28 to 40 inches in the Cabinets. There is a bit of a larger spread in the southern area, with the Silver Valley-Bitterroots showing 15 to 40 inches, but the upper end still lands similarly to the northern zones. The Purcell Mountains lagged a bit behind in overall snowfall, accumulating 15 to 24 inches.

This new snowfall and strong wind speeds have been the main drivers of the increased avalanche danger, with natural avalanches observed both in the northern and southern ends of the forecast region during periods of heavy snowfall. Long shooting cracks that were observed extending in front of skis and propagating results in snow pit tests, all demonstrate the sensitivity of these new slabs. A reported skier-triggered avalanche that occurred on January 8th, which failed in the new storm snow, is bullseye data that slabs have lingering sensitivity and will be reactive to the additional weight of a skier or snowmobiler.

Buried weak layers continue to rear their heads in snow pit tests and produce propagating results. The most reactive layer has been buried surface hoar that developed on January 1st, and was then capped and preserved by snowfall the next day. Reports have found this layer intact and propagating on multiple aspects and varying elevations in the northern mountains, failing with easy to moderate force. Field teams have had a hard time finding this layer in the Silver Valley-Bitterroots, where rain lines crept higher up the mountain, and snowfall was wet and heavy. We cannot totally count this layer out down there at upper elevations, due to the possibility that protected pockets may have been spared and preserved.

Below that, rain crusts with facets above and below still lurk deeper in the snowpack. As a result, an otherwise small avalanche that fails in the storm snow still has the potential to invoke a failure deeper in the snowpack on one of these crust and facet combos.

With conditions changing so quickly and a large “zero to hero” type storm, the snowpack will need ample time to stabilize and adjust to reach a state of equilibrium. Conditions remain dangerous in the mountains, and it is too early to try and thread the needle. Have a plan to stick to low-angle meadows without steep slopes connected above to enjoy the new snowfall, reduce avalanche risk, and ensure many more powder days ahead.

 

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