Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected with rising freezing levels and ongoing rain. The largest and most reactive avalanches will be at higher elevations, where there is deeper snow that just recently gotten wet - avoid where avalanches start, run and stop up here. Avalanche activity may be more limited at lower elevations, nevertheless, avoid lingering beneath large paths connected to upper elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    We expect peak avalanche activity Sunday night as snowlines initially rise to the top of the upper elevation band. Large, dangerous wet avalanches may remain very likely as temperatures continue to increase through the day. The greatest amount of activity—and the largest avalanches—will be in the upper elevation band, where more previously cold, dry snow existed.

    Avoid all steep slopes on this soggy day. At upper elevations, also steer clear of areas where avalanches run and stop, beneath large slopes. 

    At lower elevations, warm temperatures and rain have already affected these slopes since Saturday night. The snowpack has likely adjusted, and few natural avalanches are expected here. However, it’s still wise to avoid lingering beneath large avalanche paths, such as gullies, that connect to upper elevations.

    Large and destructive wet avalanches will naturally occur on Monday. They may travel down to lower elevations. 

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche Fatality: On Friday, January 9th, four backcountry skiers were caught and carried by a large avalanche while descending near Longs Pass in the Teanaway River drainage. The slide occurred on a S to SE facing slope at approximately 6200ft. One member of the party was not buried. Another teammate was partially buried but injured. The other two individuals were fully buried. During the initial rescue, the team located one of the buried victims, who did not survive. Despite the group's best efforts, they could not pinpoint the fourth member of their team. The party contacted 911 via a satellite device, and Kittitas County Search and Rescue responded to the area on Friday evening. Additional rescue efforts were postponed until daylight. Search and Rescue then returned to the site on Saturday and were joined by NWAC forecasters. The teams were able to locate the remaining victim. Unfortunately, neither of the fully buried skiers survived. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community of those involved in this avalanche accident. S-SE aspect, 6200ft, Avg Depth 2ft, HS-AS-R3-D2.5-O

Forecast Discussion: 

Any variety of odd wet avalanche problems might present themselves on Monday: you might get glide avalanches, wet snow chunks precariously sitting on rocks, or cornices to fail on Monday. Finally, the most recent notable crust sits about 3 feet deep at 5000ft. If there's enough rain, it might saturate the snow down to the crust, creating a lubricating layer and wet slab avalanches. This is highly unlikely, but not impossible. 

 The West Central zone will receive about an inch and a half of rain Sunday night. Forecasts show it will mainly fall as rain to the top of our upper elevation band. We'll get an inch of rain on Monday, with even higher snowlines. It will remain windy. 

An unusual atmospheric river is impacting us right now. Northerly parts of the Cascades are getting hammered, while very little precipitation is falling farther south. Hence, the unusual spread of color on the NWAC map. After this event is over, expect an extended period of warm weather without precipitation. 

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