Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The first storm of 2026 will bring snow, wind, rain, and freezing rain to our zone, creating a messy weather day. You may encounter both wet and dry avalanche problems if you venture into the mountains. Use the snow surface and your own weather observations to identify the issues at your location and tailor your plans accordingly. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Below the rain/snow line, you'll likely need to manage wet avalanche problems on Friday. Look for wet slides wherever rain is falling on dry snow, or where a wet, weak snow surface exists. New rollerballs, pinwheels, or fan-shaped avalanche debris are all indicators of wet loose avalanches. If you see these signs, head for lower-angled terrain. 

    If the rain keeps coming and water can work deeper into the snowpack, you may see a few slabs release on the 12/24 crust. We suspect these will be few and far between, but if you see slab avalanches, you're dealing with a more dangerous and less predictable problem, so vacate the area.

    (12/3/2025)

    Wet Loose avalanches on a steep slope. Expect to find these anywhere rain is falling on dry snow. If the snow surface is already wet and weak, you may be able to initiate these yourself.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Conversely, above the rain/snow line, you will need to manage dry snow issues. The most likely problem you'll encounter up high is unstable wind slabs on leeward slopes. Look for them near ridgelines, on convex features, or near rocky terrain such as confined chutes or the base of cliffs. Textured surfaces, actively blowing snow, and fresh drifts are visual clues you can use to identify wind-loaded features to avoid. If they form over a firm crust, they could trigger easily. Using small test slopes or quick hand pits can help you gauge how large or sensitive these slabs may be. 

    (12/21/2025)

    Obvious signs of the wind help identify which direction the wind has been blowing lately. And in the background, you can see a wind slab avalanche that failed naturally.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Friday is likely to be a day where the weather pans out differently throughout the zone, making it hard to lay out the challenges you may face from an avalanche perspective. We know precipitation is on its way, along with wind and warmer than usual temperatures. However, there's a lot of nuance to the weather forecast, especially when it comes to pockets of cold air and the difference between the volcanoes vs. the crest.

Simply put, you need to be prepared for the full spectrum of precipitation types: freezing rain, rain, and snow. Pinpointing exactly when and where each of these will fall is difficult. Keep an eye on how the weather is unfolding wherever you are - what kind of precipitation is falling? How is the snow surface reacting? Those observations will help guide you toward the avalanche problems you need to manage.

This storm will fall on a strong, well-settled snowpack throughout the zone. We suspect most avalanche activity will be confined to the new snow or to the current snow surface destabilized by rain. As alluded to above, there is a crust down roughly a foot (12/24) where, if we overproduce in rain, there is a slight chance of more dangerous slab releases. Or you could see blocks of snow shed from rocky ledges if the rain keeps up.

No matter how the weather shakes out, if it's not all snow, it won't help our thin snowpack and unyielding travel hazards. Open creeks, random holes, rocks, and bushes will only be exacerbated by rain. Freezing rain would obviously create a slick crust that could cause you to slip and fall. Allow yourself extra time to navigate these hazards.

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