Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Both the size and chance of triggering avalanches increase as you climb into windy terrain.  Above treeline, natural avalanches are possible. Avoid steep slopes with stiff, wind-drifted snow at the surface. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, a skier triggered a wind slab avalanche in the southern Sawtooths while entering steep, exposed terrain. Today, triggering similar avalanches remains likely.

    What and where is it?  In alpine terrain, slabs could release naturally, are larger, and are most widespread. Recent wind and snowfall formed slabs and drifts up to 3 feet thick in upper and some middle elevation locations, and they will continue to grow today. Some slabs overlie crusts and/or thin layers of weak, faceted snow; the wind slabs could be easy to trigger and break wider than expected on some slopes. 

    How can we recognize and manage this problem? Fortunately, the fresh wind slabs are fairly easy to spot and avoid. Watch for smooth pillows below ridgelines and cornices as well as on the sides of cross-loaded gullies. In the craggy Sawtooth Mtns, you may find slabs where "spindrifted" snow has accumulated below large cliff faces and couloirs. Dunes and ripples on the surface are clues the wind has been at work transporting snow. If you feel the snow surface getting stiffer, it's time to pay attention. Cracks shooting out from your skis or sled are an obvious sign that you've found a wind slab. Hard wind slabs sound hollow, like a drum, and behave unpredictably; they can break above you and wider than expected. 

    Additional discussion: It is possible trigger 1.5-2’ thick avalanches in terrain sheltered from the wind. These avalanches could fail on a variety of old snow surfaces, such as crust, facets, or a combination of both. Additionally, loose snow avalanches (sluffs) are possible in steep terrain. Sluffs could trigger larger slab avalanches lower on aprons and in cirques.

    (1/6/2026)

    A soft wind slab triggered by skiers while entering steep terrain near McDonald Peak in the southern Sawtooth Mtns. 9600', NE.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    While unlikely, we can't write off triggering large avalanches in middle and upper elevation terrain while the snow keeps piling up. Unfortunately, you probably won't receive any obvious signs of instability before triggering one of these lingering monsters. We are most concerned with a layer of weak facets found near the ground on middle and upper elevation slopes, especially those facing away from the sun.

    Triggering a slide on this layer is most likely in rocky, heavily wind-affected areas where the snowpack depth is variable, and in more sheltered terrain where the snowpack is around 3 feet deep (read the Forecast Discussion for details). Smaller wind slab avalanches or sluffs (Problem 1 above) could "step-down" as they travel down slope, triggering much larger Persistent Slab avalanches.

    (12/28/2025) Large natural avalanches. Paradise Peak and West Fork Big Creek. Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

With the amount of recent new snow and winds, I'd be scared to attempt to travel through the alpine today. 

Stay alert to changing conditions today. The skiing and riding conditions are the best and least risky on slopes that lack stiffer surface slabs. However, in areas where the new snow fell on crusts or facets, avalanches are possible. Slabs could form mid-day on what was previously "sheltered," if we receive stronger winds, higher temperatures, or more sun than forecasted. 

Where is the best chance of finding the thinner snowpacks near 3 feet deep where the Persistent Slab problem could still be alive?  Near the mouths of the drainages near Smiley Creek (Headwaters of the Salmon River, Frenchman Ck, Smiley Ck, Beaver Ck), and on the eastern front of the Sawtooth Mtns. Read Zach's Observation from New Year's Day for more information.  

Regions covered