Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Considerable at all elevations today. Below 3000 feet it will be likely for a person to trigger an avalanche 1-2’ in depth on a layer of Buried Surface Hoar. Above 3000 ft, new snow and winds overnight will cause pockets of instability in wind loaded terrain features and areas with higher storm totals. Using safe travel procedures and choosing conservative, lower angle terrain will help you have a safe day in the mountains today.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Overnight an additional 4”of new snow fell on Thompson Pass adding to the 12-20” we have received over the course of this week. In the middle and lower elevations, this new snow is continuing to build a slab on top of Buried Surface Hoar (weak snow) that formed during the clear dry weather from last week. Below 3000 ft expect the new snow to increase sensitivity on this layer.

    The elevation band of most concern is where this layer overlaps with the December Facets in the 2500-3500 ft range. Triggering an avalanche on the layer of Buried Surface Hoar could step down to weak snow at the ground (Deep Persistent Problem) creating a much larger, dangerous avalanche.

    Above 3000 ft, snow from earlier in the week should be bonding and any instabilities near the top of the snowpack will be related to the most recent snow overnight, particularly in areas that have been wind loaded from the moderate easterly winds overnight.

    Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees below 3000 ft and be heads up for wind loaded terrain features above 3000ft.

    Natural slab avalanche failing on buried surface hoar, on a small terrain feature.  

    Benzene Alley 1/27

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow exists at the bottom of the snowpack at all elevations, and new snow is adding additional stress to these weak layers. The mid elevations have shown to have the weakest snow across all our forecast areas. The distribution of weak snow at upper elevations is more variable. Areas that are typically accumulation zones with a deeper snowpack such as glaciers and concave bowls have shown to be gaining strength, while steep, rocky, exposed areas with a thinner snowpack are much weaker. 

    These layers are buried well over 1 meter (3 ft) deep and will not show signs of instability. The best way to avoid this problem for now is to stay off steep, rocky terrain where the snowpack is thin enough that a rider may be able to bend the slab and initiate an avalanche.

    This problem is worse in the continental zone where the snow is weaker and the slab is thinner.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: Natural avalanche observed in Benzene Alley at 1300'/ North N-R3-D1.5

A few mid storm R1-D1.5 natural avalanches on the mid elevation buttresses were observed between Python and Gully 1.

Forecast Discussion

Since Monday, 16-24” of snow has fallen across our forecast areas slowly building a significant slab. Stay heads up for instabilities within this new snow from last night, particularly in areas that have been wind loaded. This problem would ordinarily be labeled as a storm slab, but has been listed under persistent slab, as the biggest concern are the areas where the slab is building on Buried Surface Hoar. Expect instabilities within the new snow at upper elevations to stabilize while the slab in the middle and lower elevations remains sensitive to human triggers for much longer.

A typical storm slab (new snow) will usually bond to the old snow surface within 24-48 hours and become less reactive over this time. The opposite is the case when this new snow falls on surface hoar. If the new snow is light and unconsolidated it may not show many signs of instabilities right off the bat, but as the slab consolidates, it will become more reactive. This can trick users into thinking the new snow has bonded to the underlying snow and then get surprised when the instability gets worse with time. Stay on your toes with this problem and don’t get complacent. Buried Surface Hoar is a common weak layer associated with avalanche accidents and our current setup in which the buried surface hoar is sitting on top of a rain crust is rare for Valdez.

 For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections. 

Regions covered