Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Paying attention to how refrozen and supportable surfaces are as you travel around on Friday will be the key. Don't linger on steep slopes with unsupportive wet snow or under snow-covered rock features where chunks of snow could fall down. A large wet snow avalanche is unlikely, but triggering one could result in an unsurvivable ride.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    At this point, we are 4 (or 5 if you're reading this on Friday) nights out from a solid refreeze at middle and upper elevations. Typically, this means we would probably move away from any avalanche problem and heightened avalanche danger. However, with a lack of on the ground information for the zone, we don't have the confidence to do that just yet. Warming could be wrapping its way around the compass rose and impacting shadier slopes as it has in the West North zone. Liquid water could finally be working its way down to interfaces buried deeper in areas with deeper snowpacks. Ultimately, it's unlikely you'll trigger any wet snow avalanches on Friday. But if you did trigger a wet slab, it would be large and deadly. Slabs could slide on slickened crusts within the snowpack that formed earlier in the season.

    Unfortunately, these avalanches are nearly impossible to predict. You'll be much more likely to see globs of snow falling from cliff bands and rock features. Lower elevations should stay cool enough to hold off significant warming and weakening. A lot of south facing slopes no longer have any snow to begin with. Use terrain to your advantage and pay close attention to surfaces as you travel around. Rivulet-like depressions formed on the surface (see media gallery for example photos) are useful indicators that liquid water has run through the snowpack.

    (1/14/2026)

    Multiple crowns from wet avalanches releasing on recent wind/storm-related layers. Spire Gully, Hairpin Valley, NE, 7,000ft

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

Thursday was "cooler" than the day before, if you can consider average middle and upper elevation temperatures in the 40sF to be cooler. Friday will be yet another gorgeous sunny day. Yay for curing seasonal depression, boo for our poor snowpack. Expect mild, yet shifty wind as you gain elevation.

From observations in surrounding zones, there is variability in where surface crusts exist and how thick they are. Although temperatures aren't dipping below freezing at night, clear skies are enabling surfaces to radiationally cool somewhat. The east flow wind pattern could help keep things just a touch cooler as well. But some of the zone got a bit of rain from an atmospheric river event last weekend, and we haven't heard to what extent it impacted the snowpack. There are a lot of factors playing into this problem that we don't normally see this time of year to begin with and we just don't know whether a cycle has occurred. We do suspect that wet slab avalanches are more likely in areas with shallower snowpacks, such as Icicle Creek and the Wenatchees.

This makes Friday an excellent day not only to practice your terrain management skills but also to have good conversations with your group about risk tolerance. What does the terrain around you look like? Are there exposed rocks in the middle of the slope that could be potential trigger points? Are there terrain traps and other hazards below you that could turn a slide from bad to worse? Do you feel comfortable entering onto a big, steep slope where there is an unlikely chance of triggering an avalanche large enough to bury and kill you? Kinda sounds like a low likelihood, high consequence persistent slab problem...

Travel at lower elevations was just starting to improve before rain and warming reversed its course. In addition to the travel challenges, even small avalanches in these locations can take you for a rough, nasty ride. Plan for tricky travel and give yourself extra time to navigate lower elevations.

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