Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Considerable above 2000 feet. It is likely a person may trigger a wind slab avalanche up to 24 inches in depth on specific terrain features such as cross loaded gullies and lee slopes. Natural avalanches are possible. Cautious route finding and careful snowpack evaluation are essential.

Avalanche Forecasts will be issued 5 days/week Wednesday-Sunday

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A brief period of snow yesterday deposited another 2"-3" of new snow atop of the 4-5" we had received over the past week. Strong north winds are quickly redistributing the low density snow forming touchy wind slabs in specific locations. Wind slabs up to 24" in depth will be found in cross loaded gullies and lee slopes in the mid and upper elevations. Because of the strength of the winds, slabs may be found further down lee slopes than anticipated. Below 3000 ft wind slabs forming on the 12/1 rain crust were showing potential for propagation in pit results. Above tree line and upper elevations expect wind slabs to be similarly touchy on top of a knife hard old wind slab and faceted snow.

    This avalanche problem can be managed through careful route finding and conservative terrain selection. The wind slabs will exist on terrain features that share common characteristics such as cross loaded gullies and lee slopes. Noting the direction and strength of the wind will help identify these terrain features. Shooting cracks and collapses (whoomps) are signs that wind slabs are reactive and have the potential to create avalanches

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  Small natural avalanches were observed on wind loaded rollovers in Moonlight Basin on 12/31. N-R2-D1

Forecast Discussion:  

Field observations are showing that despite strong winds over the past 6 days, and an additional few inches of new snow yesterday, there still remains plenty of soft snow available for transport, meaning winds slabs will continue forming on lee slopes and cross loaded gullies. Winds slabs have shown to be touchy, producing shooting cracks, and collapses in specific locations.  Strong winds are forecasted to continue through this morning before tapering off this afternoon into evening. Areas that have been seeing strong winds but not as strong as in the gaps, and high elevation ridgelines will be the most likely areas you may encounter a wind slab.

The December drought has left us with a thin faceted (weak) snowpack. There is a large degree of spatial variability across our forecast areas in terms of how developed the faceting is. Areas with a deeper snowpack have shown to be less faceted (stronger), while thinner areas have shown some very developed faceting (weaker). Wind slabs forming on faceted snow surfaces have been quite touchy, it remains to be seen if these wind slabs will persist in specific locations or begin to bond to the underlying snow.

An additional concern today is the cold, Noaa is forecasting wind chill values as low as -50 on Thompson Pass. If you venture out into the mountains today take extra precautions to stay warm. Happy New Year!

Additional Details:  There is no field data from the Maritime zone due to low snow coverage and thick brush restricting access.  Numerous Glide avalanches have released in the Maritime zone in the mid elevation band.  Some of these may have failed without previous visible glide cracks.  Avoid travel below glide cracks as they can fail at any time.  Their likelihood of failure is independent of the snowpack stability.  Check out the season summary tab for more information on the development of the snowpack.

 

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