Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate today.  It remains possible for a person to trigger a wind slab avalanche 1-2 feet in depth in specific terrain, which includes cross-loaded gullies.  Watch for signs of instability, such as shooting cracks or collapsing that would indicate unstable snow.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

The next avalanche forecast will be issued on Wednesday January 7th.  In the meantime expect for a storm slab problem to develop once snowfall begins to accumulate.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Triggering a lingering persistent wind slab 1-2 feet in depth continues to be the sole avalanche problem for today.  A faceted rain crust below 3000' is responsible for keeping wind slabs reactive.  Shooting cracks and large collapses continue to be observed as recently as 1/3, indicating a fragile weak layer.

    The distribution of the weak layer is spotty in areas exposed to the highest winds and becomes more widespread as you move away from wind channeled terrain such as Thompson Pass.  Wind slabs themselves are spotty as well close to the Thompson Pass gap.  In many places, the weak layer is at the surface and poses no current hazard.  Weak layer distribution will be an important distinction moving forward as the wind slab problem becomes less relevant next week and the persistent weak layer (12/1 rain crust) remains in focus and is loaded by new snow.

    Todays avalanche problem can be easily avoided by recognizing what a wind slab looks like, where they form, and avoiding these areas.  Wind slabs have a rounded and smooth pillowed look, and at this point in their life cycle, will have a hollow drum-like feel.  They form in cross-loaded gullies, and lee rollovers.    

     

    (12/26/2025)

    Underside of 12/1 rain crust

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  None

Forecast Discussion:  

Hallelujah, snow is coming!!! Today is the final day of the brutal pattern of below-average temperatures, wind and very little new snow.  The result of this weather has left us with a variety of wind damged surfaces as well as large areas stripped to the ground.  In addition to wind damaged snow, significant faceting has also occurred.  The degree of faceting and structure of the snowpack is variable depending on elevation.

Our current primary concern is thin wind slabs that sit on top of the 12/1 rain crust that exists below 3000'.  The majority of terrain is stripped of new snow and this weak layer (12/1 crust) is at the surface and poses no danger.  Only specific terrain such as cross-loaded gullies and lee slopes are areas where the weak layer has been buried and is a concern.  We have been anticipating this rain crust to be an issue once we begin to receive meaningful snowfall, but seeing it immediately become reactive with minimal load is notable.  This weak layer is going to be loaded by new snow next week which will move the distribution of reactive slopes from specific to widespread below 3000'. 

There are facets above 3000' as well, but in contrast to the 12/1 rain crust where they are only capped by a weak crust, the facets above 3000' are topped with thick wind slabs that are very strong.  These wind slabs will require a much larger load before we see the facets below them react.  

Snowfall is forecasted to begin late Sunday night.  Keep in mind that there are large areas of terrain that are bare ground.  Shallowly buried rocks will be a major hazard.  As snowfall accumulates next week, expect for a storm slab problem to develop.

Additional Details:  There is no field data from the Maritime zone due to low snow coverage and thick brush restricting access.  Check out the season summary tab for more information on the development of the snowpack.

 

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