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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2013–Jan 14th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Poor - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday night and Monday: The ridge of high pressure that has brought cold temperatures lately is being replaced by a warm front pushing towards the interior during the night making temperatures warm up significantly and leaving some light precipitation during the day. Freezing levels will also be unseasonably high with an inversion that could keep the peaks above zero degrees as well. Cloud cover should also dissipate in the alpine with some mid-level clouds. Winds are forecasted to be moderate from the Northwest.Tuesday: Similar situation for Tuesday with alpine temperatures being well above normal and strong sun radiation. Winds are expected to be light from the West.Wednesday:  Temperatures should start cooling in the alpine and a couple disturbances could bring some light precipitation with similar winds.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the region.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack instabilities that were starting to settle will most likely become unstable again with the rapid warming forecasted for tomorrow and additional solar radiation on Tuesday.  Read the forecaster's blog to learn more about this process. Last week's storm snow is sitting above weak surfaces including surface hoar (found especially below about 1600 m in sheltered areas) and facets. Where it exists, the buried surface hoar is at a prime depth for triggering by rapid warming. Recent winds have also left wind slabs in the lee of terrain breaks such as ridges and ribs at alpine and treeline elevations. In areas sheltered from the wind, loose snow avalanches could throw you off your feet or carry you into a terrain trap. A strong mid-pack overlies a weak facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.