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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2013–Jan 20th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

The stationary ridge of high pressure is expected to bring continued dry conditions to the region until Tuesday at which point the ridge moves east allowing light snowfall to affect westerly slopes. Alpine temperatures are forecast to be about 0.0` for Sunday and Monday, and then dropping on Tuesday. Winds should remain light to moderate from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday and Friday numerous avalanches ran to size 3.5 in the north of the region where recent snow accumulations were the highest. They occurred in response to heavy snowfall and strong to extreme winds. Most recent occurrences were observed on east to northwest aspects at treeline and above. One result pulled down to basal weaknesses where it interacted with summer firn.

Snowpack Summary

A melt freeze crust is likely to exist in most areas below treeline that were previously rain soaked. Light amounts of recent snow (heavy amounts in the north) exist as storm slabs and windslabs at treeline and above. A persistent weakness of surface hoar buried at the end of December sits below all of the more recent storm snow and is still on the radar of professionals in the area. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong, although well developed basal facets remain a concern in shallow snowpack areas.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.