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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2014–Dec 11th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

With no Freeze expected over the next 36hrs below 2400m, conditions will remain "Sporty".  There is really no good skiing out there at this time so be patient for a while yet. 

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels are expected to remain above 2200m until friday when we will finally see some cooler air move into the region.  We may see a spattering of rain and or snow throughout the week but forecastd amounts are not expected to be that significant.  Freezing levels and the lack of any freeze are key issues at this time.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose wet slides from steeper terrain on all aspects up to 2400m

Snowpack Summary

Rain is falling at this time as high as 2300m.  Below this elevation the snowpack is moist and settling rapidly.  Above this elevation the region has been hit hard by the strong winds from last week and many area are looking pretty rugged.  Long term this warm temps and settlement will help consolidate some of the weak layers but right now, it sure makes skiing an unpleasant thought!

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.