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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2015–Jan 8th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Strong winds stripped us of the alpine snow on westerly aspects. Treat the treeline/alpine transitional terrain with respect right now.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

No snow is expected. The temps will fall throughout the day. The upper winds will continue to haul out of the NW for the morning and then fade away in the early afternoon. Ridgetop winds will be light.

Avalanche Summary

2 natural slabs were seen today in the alpine (Tent Ridge & Mt Nestor). Both were size 2, NE asp, 2500m. Pin wheeling was noted on steep solar aspects at lower elevations. To top it off, a few isolated loose dry avalanches were noted early in the day on steep slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Below tree line there is 20-25 cm's of new snow on top of the Dec13th crust. The snow above the crust has faceted and will likely be a potential sliding layer as the load grows. At treeline the crust is now down 30cm's with a similar pattern of faceting above and below. So far the crust is not breaking down significantly at treeline elevation. The midpack is breaking down quickly. The winds today were significant enough to create reactive soft slabs at treeline and more dense slabs in the alpine. Snow depth at 1900m was 90cm's.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.