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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 2nd, 2017–Dec 3rd, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Reactive wind slabs may exist at upper elevations and could step down to deeper weak layers producing large avalanches. Use a conservative approach to terrain selection as the snowpack remains  highly variable in the region.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Mix of sun and valley cloud. Ridgetop winds light from the North West. Alpine temperatures near -6 and freezing levels at valley bottom. Monday: Mostly cloudy. Alpine temperatures near -3 freezing levels rising to 1000 m. Ridgetop winds strong from the West.Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Alpine temperatures near 0 degrees and freezing levels 1500 m. Ridgetop winds light from the South West.Expect temperature inversions from Monday onward. Check out the Mountain Weather Forecast for details.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported. Stiff wind slabs may exist at treeline and in the alpine on leeward slopes and cross-loaded features. If triggered, these could step down and trigger deeper weak layers, initiating large avalanches. The last significant avalanche observation was submitted on November 28th from Skilokis Cr. A size 2.5 persistent slab was triggered from 150 m distance away. This problem will likely linger. Check out the Mountain Information Network for more details. Give info, get info.

Snowpack Summary

Alpine snow surfaces are likely wind affected with average snowpack depths 80 cm -140 cm at treeline elevations, and up to 160 cm in the alpine. Approximately 30-50 cm of recent snow now overlies two crusts that were buried near the end of November. Reports indicate that these crusts extend well into the alpine. Below these crusts exists a well settled mid pack overlying the late October crust near the base of the snowpack. This late October "crust/facet combo" is widespread and has been reactive to rider triggers producing large avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.