Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 15 – 17, 2019
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Large fragile cornices will become very weak during periods of high heat. Most cornices have formed in the alpine or on alpine-like features in the treeline on northerly aspects. Large cornice pieces could have the potential to injure and could trigger deeper weak layers.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1
    Sustained positive temperatures and sun affect will create moist and wet snow with very little cohesion. Expect snow to fall off rocks, trees, or anything else inclined during the height of heat. All aspects and elevations will be affected.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Be aware of overhead hazard. Large or very large avalanches initiated in the alpine may have the potential to affect lower elevations. Avoid travel above or below cornices, or the slopes that they may affect. Small loose wet avalanches may have increased consequence when associated with terrain traps. Collapsing snow and creek immersions are a concern below treeline.

Avalanche Summary

Mostly small loose wet avalanches observed and reported over the forecast period. One size 2 natural slab avalanche observed in the alpine of eastern Strathcona Park. The slab was initiated below a cornice feature/alpine ridge on a north aspect above 1800 m.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has been rained on or melted by the sun during the forecast period. Sun and rain cups dominate the snow surface below 1600 m.

Snowpack Details

Surface: 20-80 cm of moist snow dependent on elevation. Upper: moist. Mid: Old crust layers settling and bonding well. Lower: well settled.

Past Weather

Minimal precipitation, warm/rising temperatures and freezing levels with easing southerly winds.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: 0-3 mm of precipitation with freezing levels to 2800 m. Light SE winds. TUESDAY: Minimal precipitation with freezing levels dropping to 1700 m. Light SE winds. WEDNESDAY: 3-10 mm of precipitation, higher totals in the south. Freezing levels around 1100 m.

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