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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2019–Jan 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Be aware of overhead hazard. Large or very large avalanches initiated in the alpine may have the potential to affect lower elevations. Avoid travel above or below cornices, or the slopes that they may affect. Small loose wet avalanches may have increased consequence when associated with terrain traps. Collapsing snow and creek immersions are a concern below treeline.

Avalanche Summary

Mostly small loose wet avalanches observed and reported over the forecast period. One size 2 natural slab avalanche observed in the alpine of eastern Strathcona Park. The slab was initiated below a cornice feature/alpine ridge on a north aspect above 1800 m.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has been rained on or melted by the sun during the forecast period. Sun and rain cups dominate the snow surface below 1600 m.

Snowpack Details

Surface: 20-80 cm of moist snow dependent on elevation. Upper: moist. Mid: Old crust layers settling and bonding well. Lower: well settled.

Past Weather

Minimal precipitation, warm/rising temperatures and freezing levels with easing southerly winds.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: 0-3 mm of precipitation with freezing levels to 2800 m. Light SE winds. TUESDAY: Minimal precipitation with freezing levels dropping to 1700 m. Light SE winds. WEDNESDAY: 3-10 mm of precipitation, higher totals in the south. Freezing levels around 1100 m.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.