Take the time to dig down and evaluate the snowpack before committing to a line. There are several buried layers of concern, principally the very weak basal layers.
Weather Forecast
Weather models are disagreeing about the extent of possible precipitation for Wednesday. Some models are calling for up to 8cm, while others are predicting only a trace of new snow. There is consistency in the temperature and wind predictions with highs of -3 Celsius and strong to extreme SW winds expected.
Avalanche Summary
One size 2.0 naturally triggered slab avalanche was observed today. This slab occurred at 2600m on a NW aspect in the past 24hrs, likely triggered by wind loading.
Snowpack Summary
An additional 2cm of new snow fell overnight. The upper snowpack consists of mostly low density surface snow with ski penetrations around 30cm. However, wind slabs are noticeable at Treeline elevations and get progressively more dense and widespread across the terrain as you gain elevation. In most cases the bond below these wind slabs seems to be relatively good, but convex and unsupported terrain should be approached cautiously. Forecasters are watching a few persistent weak layers deeper in the snowpack that continue to give results in stability tests. The layers to watch for include the Dec 30th facet interface (down 50cm), the Dec 10th surface hoar/facet interface (down 70cm) and the extensive basal facets which make up the entire bottom half of the snowpack.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.