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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2019–Jan 28th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Manage alpine wind slabs by paying attention to how the snow feels underneath your skis/track, and backing off where it feels stiff. Increase your caution at and below treeline, buried surface hoar has been especially touchy between 1500 & 1800 m.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

High pressure, cold temperatures and clear skies should allow for great visibility Monday and Tuesday. Cloud cover starts to build back in Wednesday along with a few cm of snow. Thursday and Friday look to be storm days, but total accumulations should be less than 10 cm.SUNDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, light to moderate north/northwest wind, no precipitation expected.MONDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, light northerly wind, no precipitation expected.TUESDAY: Clear skies, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, light to moderate west/northwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday a skier triggered a small persistent slab avalanche on an east facing feature at 2000 m, failing on the mid-January surface hoar.On Friday numerous small wind slabs 15 to 20 cm in depth were observed on small north facing rolls around 2000 m. There was also a report of a natural avalanche underneath a large cornice, photos here. A few natural wind slabs, storm slabs and dry loose avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported on Wednesday and Thursday on steep slopes on a variety of aspects at treeline and alpine elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Saturday delivered warmth and wind to the region, this MIN report notes strong southwest wind Saturday. In the neighboring North Columbias winds were strong to extreme out of the west, south, southwest and northwest. This left a crust on steep south facing aspects and likely redistributed quite a bit of snow into fresh and potentially deep wind slabs in lee alpine features. The warmth also allowed 15 to 45 cm of snow to continue to consolidate above the mid-January persistent weak layer (PWL). This PWL is made up of large surface hoar that is most prevalent at and below treeline, with enhanced reactivity noted between 1500 and 1800 m. On steep solar aspects this interface presents as a crust, there may be locations where the surface hoar actually sits on the crust.The middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally well-settled and strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.