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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2017–Feb 13th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Watch for melting and weakening surface snow on steep sun exposed slopes where loose wet avalanches will be possible. Continue to be cautious in steep previously wind loaded terrain or any features showing signs of wind deposited snow.

Detailed Forecast

Sunshine and very mild temperatures with light to moderate ridgetop winds are expected Monday. Freezing levels should near 10,000 feet by later Monday.  

Older wind slabs should have settled and stabilized by Monday, but watch for signs of wind deposited snow on specific terrain features such as steep slopes below ridges.

Sunshine and very mild temperatures Monday should make loose-wet avalanches possible on steep southerly slopes facing the sun. Be cautious on sun exposed slopes if the wet surface snow becomes more than a few inches.     

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

A strong storm cycle from February 3rd--6th, deposited about 3 feet of snow at Hurricane Ridge. Things changed in a hurry as strong SSW flow brought a series of storms with heavy rain to high elevations in the Olympics Wednesday and Thursday. About 2 inches of rain fell at Hurricane Ridge by Thursday afternoon. Moderate showers and strong W-SW winds along with a cooling trend Friday deposited about 10 inches of snow at Hurricane Ridge through 6 pm Friday. 

Dry weather Saturday and Sunday brought increasing sunshine and warming temperatures, allowing for several inches of snowpack settlement.

Recent Observations

NWAC observer, Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge on Friday and found good skiing in non-wind affected areas well below ridges. Closer to the ridgeline, new wind slabs were quickly building on the lee easterly slopes up to 1 ft deep. These slabs were very sensitive to ski triggering with cracking readily observed on test slopes. One large loose wet avalanche was observed by the road crew Friday morning, with a few small trees in the 6-8 ft debris pile. Large cornices that had built on W-NW aspects earlier in the week were quickly being eroded by the strong W-SW winds.

No additional observations have been received this weekend. However, a dry day Saturday with filtered sunshine, and abundant sunshine with temperatures reaching 40 F Sunday should have settled any recent wind slab layers.  

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.