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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2017–Mar 11th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Mt Hood.

The snowpack may remain reactive and dangerous on Saturday and is only beginning the spring stabilizing process. Backcountry travel in avalanche terrain above treeline is not recommended on Saturday. Careful snowpack evaluation and cautious routefinding will be required in other areas.

Detailed Forecast

Another front will cross the Northwest on Saturday. This will bring another day of increasing strong alpine winds and increasing rain or snow to the Olympics and Cascades. Snow levels should rise up to about 6000 feet at Mt Hood.

Wind slab should be suspected mainly above treeline on all aspects but is most likely on NW to SE aspects due to recent SW to W winds. Watch for firmer wind transported snow on varied aspects especially in areas of complex terrain.

New sensitive storm slab is most likely above treeline in areas that receive more than a few inches of rapidly accumulating snowfall.

Avoid travel on ridges near where cornices may have formed and avoid steep slopes below cornices that may fail at any time. Cornices have been reported as large in many areas. They will have been loaded and weakened during the recent storms.

Further loose wet avalanches are most likely in the near and below treeline due to rain that should affect those areas.

Although not listed as an avalanche problem wet slab avalanches are possible in areas that receive significant rain on Saturday.

The snowpack may remain reactive and dangerous on Saturday and is only beginning the spring stabilizing process. Higher precipitation intensities could trigger avalanches. Avalanches may step down or entrain deeper layers and be large and dangerous especially if they reach the Valentine's Day crust layer.

 Backcountry travel in avalanche terrain above treeline is not recommended on Saturday. Careful snowpack evaluation and cautious routefinding will be required in other areas.

 

 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

The first week or so of March was very cool and snowy. NWAC stations at Mt Hood piled up about 6-7 ft of snow.

A strong frontal system brought increasing precipitation and winds along with a warming trend to the Cascades on Thursday. On Thursday night rain pushed up to about 7000 feet at Mt Hood. By Friday morning NWAC stations at Mt Hood had about 1.6 in of WE but alas only rain to show for it.

This caused an avalanche cycle at Mt Hood. The snow and avalanche conditions are rapidly changing in the Cascades!

Recent Observations

The Meadows patrol on Thursday reported that rainfall was saturating the upper snowpack allowing several feet of boot penetration by mid-day.

NWAC observer Laura Green was out on Friday and reported new large cornice triggered slab avalanches in White River Canyon on SE aspects in the 6500-8500 ft range, and in Heather Canyon on a NE aspect in the 6100-6800 ft range. Very large debris was seen from new avalanches in Newton Canyon. Laura reports that in the 5200-6600 ft range the upper snowpack of 4F wet and some lower density drier layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.