Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 11 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on slopes steeper than 32 degrees on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects due to a combination of new wind slabs and persistent slabs. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Large human triggered avalanches will be likely today and some natural avalanches will be possible.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3

    Intense snowfall and strong winds will build wind slabs on the NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects faster than those new wind slabs can form bonds within themselves or with the old snow surfaces. Human triggering of these wind slabs will be likely today and natural avalanches involving these wind slabs will be possible especially during the periods of heaviest snowfall this morning and tonight. Wind slabs will accumulate on wind loaded and cross loaded slopes and clues like blowing snow, cornices above a slope, pillows of drifted snow, and other wind created textures can help identify where these fragile wind slabs exist. While open near and above treeline terrain will represent the most common locations for new wind slabs, they could also form in some more traditionally sheltered areas such as open slopes in below treeline terrain due to the strength of the winds at all elevations during this storm. Wind slabs could easily grow to more than 3 ft in depth today as new snow and wind combine to multiply the accumulation amounts. If these wind slabs release on slopes where a persistent weak layer exists in the the old snowpack, they could overload that deeper layer and involve even more snow. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Persistent slabs may form on NW-N-NE aspects today as the new snow accumulates above a snowpack with weak layers of sugary snow in the bottom half of the snowpack. Data indicates that these facet layers remain weak. The additional load of new snow may push them so close to the breaking point that human triggered avalanches resulting from the failure of these persistent weak layers will become possible today. In many areas the persistent slabs remain confined by anchors poking through the buried weak layers, so these avalanches may not fracture over large areas. However, these persistent slab avalanches could fracture across wider areas and involve much more snow on slopes with smooth ground cover. Cracking, collapsing, whumphing, and recent avalanche activity can all provide clues as to where these persistent slabs may be an issue, but they could still occur on slopes without those clues. Digging into the snowpack to find this persistent weak layer and avoiding slopes where it exists, traveling on lower angle terrain, or traveling on well anchored terrain represents the best way to avoid this avalanche problem.

Avalanche Discussion

Observations from Flagpole Peak and Mt Judah yesterday and Tamarack Peak the day before all revealed a snowpack that consists of melt-freeze crusts with softer snow sandwiched between the crusts. Near the bottom of the snowpack these softer snow layers remain weak and sugary (facets). Many snowpit tests on these layers over the last few days have indicated that if these layers break the resulting fracture could travel along these layers. Observations have also shown that these weaker layers have become moist during the warm weather. Numerous rocks, stumps, logs, and other obstacles / anchors still interrupt these layers in most places. Data collected over the last several days has revealed these weak facets exist on NW-N-NE aspects at elevations ranging from 7600 ft. to 9800 ft. 

Regions covered