Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Feb 14 – 15, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Cornices are large, unsupported and may be a trigger for a large avalanche on the slope below.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3–6
    Deep and destructive persistent slab avalanches are unlikely, but a large trigger may activate this weakness on a steep, rocky & unsupported area with a shallow snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Loose surface snow may be susceptible to sluffing on steep slopes (especially if there's a slippery sun crust below), but shouldn't be too destructive unless terrain traps are in the runout. Deep persistent slab avalanches remain possible with heavy triggers in shallow rocky snowpack areas on unsupported slopes.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

The general weather pattern should continue for a few more days, namely warm days with temperatures approaching zero in the sun, cold nights, light westerly wind, and no precipitation. Freezing level is expected to be around 1300 to 1500 m. Wednesday should be quite sunny, cloudy Thursday with the odd snowflake, and then clearing again Friday. Friday looks warmer.

Snowpack Summary

Around 5 to 10 cm of fresh snow could be sitting on the widespread robust surface hoar. One report showed the feathery crystals around 4 cm long. This interface will be one to watch as it receives more snow load and/or the slab settles. Below that approximately 20cm of near-surface facets can be found on shady slopes while a sun crust can be found on southerly aspects. A well settled and strong snowpack sits on weak basal facets and depth hoar, which seem to be fairly widespread throughout the region. This deep persistent weakness was recently activated by warm temperatures, but cooler temperatures have once again reduced the sensitivity to triggers. Highly unpredictable glide cracks are also opening up, primarily on slopes with smooth ground cover. These full-depth gaping 'crevasses' could release without warning or act as a significant terrain trap.

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