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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 20th, 2012–Feb 21st, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Poor - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: A Pacific frontal system arrives bringing 5-10 cm new snow and strong westerly winds, which at ridge top could reach 100 km/h. Freezing levels will spike to around 1600 m in the afternoon. Wednesday: the cold front associated with the system moves through, bringing light amounts of snow and bringing freezing levels down to around 1000 m. Winds should become moderate northwesterly. Thursday: Dry, with light northwesterly winds and freezing levels around 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches sized 1.5 were reported on Sunday at all elevations and focussed predominantly on easterly aspects. Remote-triggering was reported, where the avalanche was triggered from up to 100 m from where it initiated.

Snowpack Summary

In southern and western parts of the region, 40-50 cm of recent snow sits of a highly reactive weak layer comprising surface hoar (most prevalent in the west of the region), sugary facets on shady northerly aspects and sun crusts on solar aspects. This interface has started to react to human-triggering. Certain features of the reactivity, such as remote triggering and the ability to initiate avalanches on relatively low angled terrain, point to this weak layer shaping up to be quite dangerous. In areas further north, less snow has fallen on this interface--in the northern Elk Valley for instance, only around 15 cm lies above this interface. In lower snow areas, avalanche activity will likely lag behind higher snow areas. In general, the mid-pack is quite strong in most locations. However, lingering concern remains for basal facets, particularly in shallower snowpack areas with steep, rocky start zones.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.