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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2016–Feb 17th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Warm temperatures on Wednesday will keep avalanche danger elevated. If you're seeking good snow you'll have to head up high, but be cautious with freshly wind-loaded slopes and overhanging cornices.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with light snow or rain - 5-10 mm/cm. The freezing level peaks somewhere near 2000-2200 m. Ridge wind are light gusting to moderate. Thursday: A chance of flurries early then mainly sunny. The freezing level is around 1800 m and ridge winds are moderate from the SW. Friday: Mainly sunny. The freezing level is around 1800 m and winds remain moderate from the SW.

Avalanche Summary

No new slab avalanches have been reported in the past few days. Small loose dry and loose wet sluffs were observed in the Crowsnest Pass area on Tuesday. There was also evidence of recent natural cornice failures.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30 cm of recent storm snow sits on a melt-freeze crust on southerly aspects and lower elevation terrain, surface hoar on sheltered slopes, and older wind affected surfaces in exposed terrain. Widespread wind effect is evident in the alpine with fresh wind slabs forming in exposed lee terrain. Cornices have grown significantly recently. Expect moist snow or a thin sun crust on solar aspects depending on the time of day. A layer of buried surface hoar can be found between 50 and 70cm down and remains a concern, primarily west of the Continental Divide. Below 1500-1600 m the snowpack is essentially isothermal and very spring-like. The snowpack rests on a weak crust/facet layer from early December.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.