Saturday's danger ratings are based on colder conditions in the alpine. If solar radiation is beyond forecast levels, the avalanche danger in the alpine may increase quickly.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Saturday: light snowfall / light to moderate northwesterly winds / freezing level at 1600m Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud / light and variable winds / freezing level at 1700m Monday: light snowfall / light to moderate southwesterly winds / freezing level at 1900m
Avalanche Summary
There was a natural wet avalanche cycle to size 3 on Thursday or Friday that occurred in response to warm temperatures and intermittent solar radiation. I expect ongoing wet snow instabilities throughout the weekend, especially at lower elevations.
Snowpack Summary
Very warm temperatures have dominated the region in recent days and all but the highest, north-facing slopes saw moist to wet surface conditions. As of Thursday morning, slightly cooler temperatures have allowed light amounts of new snow to fall above about 2000m while rain continued to penetrate and weaken the snowpack at lower elevations. Up to 60cm below the surface, you might find a weak crust interface in the alpine and at treeline. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 200 cm, although avalanches releasing on this layer represent a very low probability-high consequence scenario. Cornices in the region are very large. With spring temperatures, these are more likely to become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release deep layers on slopes below.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.