Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Mar 29 – 30, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Substantial warming and sun on Wednesday afternoon will destabilize the upper snowpack. Extra caution is required around and below cornices, and on steep sun exposed slopes.Check out this new video on warming: https://vimeo.com/160805040

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    Large cornices are expected to get weak with warming and sun exposure, and natural cornice releases are possible in the afternoon. They can be destructive by themselves, and may also become the trigger for a slab avalanche on the slope below.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Loose wet sluffing is expected on sun exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon. Very high freezing levels may increase the size and run length of natural sluffing.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure dominates for the rest of the week. Sunny and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday through Friday. Freezing levels are expected to reach around 3000m each afternoon, with cooling overnight. Moderate outflow winds are expected in the alpine on Wednesday and light outflow winds are expected for Thursday and Friday.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, skier triggered avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported.  The recent storm snow overlying a melt-freeze crust was reactive to triggering in wind affected terrain.  Loose sluffing was also reported from steep southerly slopes. No new avalanches were reported on Sunday. On Saturday, wind slab activity up to size 1.5 was reported as well as loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5. We have now entered a period with daily melt-freeze conditions and the main concern for Wednesday will be during the heat of the afternoon. Cornices will become weak and could fail naturally.  Loose wet sluffing is expected from steep sun exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

10-20cm of new snow accumulated over the weekend in sheltered areas. Over the weekend, southerly winds were loading north aspect leeward slopes. However, outflow winds on Monday are reported to be loading south aspects in the alpine while exposed north aspect slopes are being wind pressed and scoured. Large cornices are lingering and are expected to become very weak this week. Below the surface problems, the mid snowpack is generally well-settled throughout with no notable persistent weaknesses. On Monday, a sun crust is expected to have formed on south aspects. Melt-freeze conditions are expected to be widespread this week with very high freezing levels.

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