Heavy snowfall Sunday overnight is expected to form touchy new storm slabs. Stick to mellow terrain and avoid wind loaded features.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
The next low pressure system arrives on the south coast on Sunday evening. 30-40 cm of new snow is expected Sunday overnight with another 5-10 cm during day on Monday. Alpine wind is forecast to be moderate from the south and southwest. Freezing levels are forecast to be around 800 m overnight and reach around 1100 m in the afternoon. A mix of sun and cloud is currently expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday with the possibility of lingering flurries on Tuesday. Alpine wind is forecast to be light to moderate on Tuesday and light on Wednesday. Afternoon freezing levels are forecast to peak around 800 m on both days.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported recently. Widespread natural avalanche and cornice activity occurred last week during the warm storm system. Heavy snow and moderate winds Sunday overnight and early Monday are expected to form storm slabs. These slabs are expected to be touchy in wind loaded terrain and steep slopes where the new snow sits on the hard crust layer.
Snowpack Summary
In the alpine, up to 25 cm of recent snow overlies the widespread mid-February rain crust. Reports suggest this snow is well bonded to the crust. At lower elevations, the crust is likely on or near the surface of the snowpack and is expected to be supportive to the weight of a skier. Below the crust, the snowpack is likely moist or wet as a result of the heavy rain from last week.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.