Rising freezing levels and solar radiation will have a weakening effect on the snowpack. Watch for conditions that change throughout the day.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A dry ridge of high pressure will maintain sunny conditions for Monday and Tuesday. A weak trough may bring bring increased cloud and light precipitation by Wednesday evening. Winds should remain generally moderate from the northwest. Freezing levels will hover around 2300m on Monday and Tuesday, and then climb to about 3300m by Wednesday morning.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported on Saturday. With continued warming, loose wet avalanches and cornice failures will remain the primary concern, particularly on steeper, sun-exposed slopes.
Snowpack Summary
Recent rain has soaked the upper snowpack. Depending on the air temperature, snow surfaces will now appear moist or refrozen. On high north-facing slopes, light amounts of lower density snow overlie a hard crust. Much of the terrain below treeline is below threshold for avalanche activity.The hard crust that formed earlier in February can be found up to 100cm below the surface at alpine elevations. Although no recent avalanches have been observed at this interface, professionals are keeping a close eye on it as long as warm temperatures persist. Cornices are reported to be large and fragile.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.