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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 25th, 2016–Feb 26th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Large, fragile cornices demand respect. Give them a wide berth on ridges and avoid travelling underneath them.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The first of two cold fronts is expected to bring light snow late on Friday, with moderate south-westerly winds and the freezing level dropping to around 1600 m. There is a lull on Saturday before the second front brings light snow and moderate winds again on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

A few small wind slabs were triggered by skiers over the last two days. Loose wet avalanches were also reported on steep solar aspects. Cornices are large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

Snowpack Summary

Cornices are large and weak. Recently formed storm slabs and wind slabs are generally settling, but may still be reactive to human triggers in specific terrain, and may be triggered by cornice fall. Several crusts can be found in the upper metre of the snowpack. A layer of surface hoar buried in early January is down 1-2 m. In most places it is thought to be capped by a thick strong crust. It is becoming increasingly hard to make this layer fail in snowpack tests and triggering an avalanche on it is unlikely.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.