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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2013–Feb 22nd, 2013

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A series of frontal systems is expected to affect the region over the next few days. The strongest system is on track for Friday. Friday: Moderate to locally heavy snowfall – 20-30 cm. Winds are strong from the southwest and the freezing level is around 1000 m. Saturday: Cloudy with flurries or light snow. The freezing level is near valley bottom and winds ease to moderate from the northwest. Sunday: Moderate snow. The freezing level is around 700 m.

Avalanche Summary

There are no new reports of natural avalanches from the region. Rider triggered avalanches are limited to a couple size 1 slab avalanches in steep north facing terrain. This will likely change over the next few days with forecast snowfall and strong winds. Expect both the size and likelihood of avalanches to increase.

Snowpack Summary

New wind slabs are likely in exposed north through east facing terrain at and above treeline. Variable amounts of new snow continue to add to the recent storm slab which sits above the February 12th weak surface hoar layer and a sun crust on solar aspects. This layer is now buried down about 30-60 cm deep depending on where you are in the region. Recent snowpack tests have shown easy to moderate "pops" results in this interface. Deeper persistent weak layers from early February and late January continue to show planar failures when moderate to hard forces are applied in snow pack tests. These deeper layers have not been reactive to the weight of a rider, but they may be triggered by large loads like an avalanche in motion (step-down avalanche), or a cornice fall.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.