Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Mar 26 – 27, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Unusual persistent slabs continue to produce very large human triggered avalanches. See the latest forecaster blog for a more in depth look at this situation: http://bit.ly/1HHQrK2

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–5
    High variability and severe consequences makes the mid-March persistent weakness very untrustworthy. Riders continue to remote trigger very large avalanches, even when riding in conservative terrain.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Warm but dry weather is expected to continue for Friday with freezing levels as high as 2600 m, before more organized precipitation arrives in the afternoon. Expect up to 5 cm cm of fresh snow by Saturday morning falling under moderate to strong southwesterly winds with freezing levels back down to 1700 m. Continued light snow flurries and moderate winds are expected Saturday morning before a stronger system brings another 2-5 cm overnight and 5-10 cm throughout the day on Sunday. Freezing levels hovering around 1700 m and moderate to strong southwesterly winds expected during the height of the storm on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past week, there have been a number of avalanches to size 2.5 occurring on the mid-March persistent weak layer. Some avalanches have occurred naturally and many have been remote triggered from up to 100m away.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and light rain have promoted settlement within the most recent recent storm snow, but the region has a very serious persistent slab problem just under the surface. A touchy crust/facet interface known as the mid-March persistent weak layer is down 40 to 120 cm. This persistent weak layer continues to produce sudden test results at upper treeline and alpine elevations, especially in the north of the region. Below this, the snowpack is reported to be generally well-settled and strong.

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