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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 24th, 2017–Feb 25th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Avoid lingering in runout zones and watch for shallow snowpack areas where triggering a deep persistent slab avalanche remains possible.

Confidence

High - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Cloudy with light flurries in the afternoon with 2-4 cm of new snow, moderate west winds, alpine temperatures around -12 C.SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light north winds, alpine temperatures around -16 C.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest winds, alpine temperatures around -16 C.

Avalanche Summary

Few avalanches have been reported the past few days. On Thursday, ski cutting produced a few size 1 wind slabs on northerly alpine features. Some fast moving sluffing in the recent snow was also reported in steep alpine terrain. Last weekend, several larger avalanches were reported, including a remotely triggered size 3 avalanche on a deep persistent weak layer near Valemount. See here for a list of recent near misses in the Cariboos and North Rockies.Watch for isolated wind slabs at higher elevations and stay aware of the low probability - high consequence scenario of triggering a deep persistent slab avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

Light flurries over the past few days delivered 15-30 cm of low density snow. Expect to find isolated pockets with thicker wind deposits at higher elevations as well as sun crusts forming on steep south slopes. The recent snow has buried the mid-February interface, which is composed of a thick rain crust up to about 1700 m, sun crusts on steep solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on shaded aspects. The persistent weakness from mid-January is now down about a metre and the weak facets buried in mid-December are down about 1.5 metres. These deep persistent weaknesses still have the potential to wake up and become reactive with human triggers.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.