Up high, fresh, thick new storm slabs exist in many start zones: limit your exposure to these until they have some time to settle. Down low, the snowpack is recovering from the heavy rains and will be rapidly effected by any warming.
Weather Forecast
Freezing levels will rise to 1800m Tuesday with up to 10 cm expected late in the day with light winds. Freezing levels will reach 2000m with West winds Wednesday as the precip tapers off midday. Expect some sun and even higher freezing levels on Thursday with a SW flow bringing warming for the end of the week.
Snowpack Summary
20 to 30 cm of new snow now sits above a rain soaked snowpack to 2000m. At higher elevations the amount of moist snow now buried gets shallower and the new snow amounts grow quickly to 60cm at 2200m. A new rain crust has formed as the moist snow begins to refreeze. NE winds deposited the new snow in a reverse loading pattern along ridge crests.
Avalanche Summary
Visibility has been poor for the last few days but some size 2.5 debris piles can be seen below the clouds in the run-outs in several of our large alpine paths. We suspect the storm snow is failing as a soft slab and running on the new rain crust or entraining the moist snow below. The surface snow sluffs easily with skier traffic in steep terrain.
Confidence
Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Thursday
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.