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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2019–Jan 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Some avalanche danger remains in alpine areas, in wind loaded pockets and on steep, thin/rocky slopes.

Confidence

-

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, light wind, alpine temperatures drop to -10 C.WEDNESDAY: Dry with a mix of sun and cloud, light southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C. THURSDAY: Light snowfall, roughly 4-8 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.FRIDAY: Another 5 cm of snow, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday or Monday.On Saturday, two large snowmobile triggered avalanches were reported on the Mountain Information Network. One was triggered on a thin, rocky, southwest facing feature near ridgecrest north of Fernie (see here for report). The photos tell a compelling story about the structurally weak snowpack that exists in many places in the region. The other was triggered on a wind affected south facing slope at treeline in the Corbin area (see here for report). We're very grateful for people sharing stories about their near misses on the MIN. A natural size 2 deep persistent slab was also observed on a south facing aspect around 2100 m on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent sunshine and warm alpine temperatures left crusty surfaces on solar aspects while the snow appears to have remained dry on shady aspects. Wind slabs have become difficult to trigger.In shallow snowpack areas, the base of the snowpack may still be composed of weak faceted grains. In deeper snowpack areas, the middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally considered to be well-settled and strong.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.