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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2019–Jan 29th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Manage wind slabs by paying attention to how the snow feels underneath your skis/track, and backing off where it feels stiff. Increase your caution at and below treeline, buried surface hoar is well preserved, especially between 1500 & 1800 m.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Weather Forecast

High pressure, cold temperatures and clear skies should allow for great travel and visibility Tuesday. Storm clouds build back in Wednesday opening the door to snowfall that should continue through the weekend. MONDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, light northerly wind, no precipitation expected.TUESDAY: Clear skies, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.WEDNESDAY: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, mostly light variable wind with strong northwest wind at ridgetop, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, light to moderate west/southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday cornice failures to size 1.5 were observed on north through east facing terrain around 2000 m. Small natural wind slab avalanches to size 1 were reported on east and northeast facing terrain between 2000 and 2300 m.On Saturday a skier triggered a small persistent slab avalanche on an east facing feature at 2000 m, failing on the mid-January surface hoar.On Friday numerous small wind slabs 15 to 20 cm in depth were observed on small north facing rolls around 2000 m. There was also a report of a natural avalanche underneath a large cornice, photos here.

Snowpack Summary

Saturday delivered warmth and wind to the region, followed by 10 to 15 cm of new snow and a very strong wind event on Sunday. This MIN report provides a good description along with some photos that encompass conditions Sunday. The weekend weather left a crust on steep south facing aspects and redistributed quite a bit of snow into potentially deep wind slabs in lee features at and above treeline. 15 to 45 cm of snow continues to consolidate above the mid-January persistent weak layer (PWL). This PWL is made up of large surface hoar that is most prevalent at and below treeline, with enhanced reactivity noted between 1500 and 1800 m. On steep solar aspects this interface presents as a crust, there may be locations where the surface hoar actually sits on the crust.The middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally well-settled and strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.