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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2019–Jan 2nd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Wind slabs may still linger on wind-loaded slopes.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, moderate west winds, freezing level below valley bottom.WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1500 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Skiers were capable of triggering small (size 1) wind slabs on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 cm recent storm snow was accompanied by strong winds that blew first from the southwest and then from the northwest. This new snow covers a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals), which was buried on Boxing Day.A persistent weak layer that formed in early December may be found 80 to 120 cm deep. This layer mostly consists of sugary faceted snow with some isolated areas also containing feathery surface hoar crystals. While professionals are still tracking this layer, it has not been reactive for some time now, except for the east side of the region near Corbin.Near the bottom of the snowpack lies a mix of crusts and facets that formed in late October/early November. Triggering an avalanche at the base of the snowpack is unlikely at this time, although the most likely place to do so would be from a steep rocky start zone in an area where the snowpack was shallow.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.