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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2019–Jan 6th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Natural activity is decreasing but human triggering is a very real possibility.  Stick to conservative terrain for a few days and let the snowpack adjust to the new load.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Sunday may see a few cm of new snow overnight with temperatures cooling slights and winds becoming more moderate out of the SW.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural avalanches were observed up to sz 3 mainly on N and E aspects in alpine areas. These slabs were up to 1m deep and 300m wide running to the top of their normal runouts. The majority of the avalanche activity looks to have occurred mid storm. A few smaller slabs were observed in thin treeline snowpack areas failing at ground but running far due to the widespread faceted base.

Snowpack Summary

The storm snow (40-50cm) that we received over the past few days is beginning to settle and SLOWLY strengthen. Shears with the upper snowpack and at the storm snow interface have tightened up but we still have a big concern for the weak facetted base that persists everywhere. New winds slabs should be expected in open wind affected areas in the alpine especially on N and E aspects. Moderate sudden collapse failures within the basal facets indicate the snowpack is still ripe for human triggering. Give the snowpack time to strengthen and stick to mellow low consequence terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.