Avalanche forecast

Lizard-Flathead

Jan 14 – 15, 2019Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Some avalanche danger remains in alpine areas, in wind loaded pockets and on steep, thin/rocky slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Up to 30 cm of recent snow has formed a storm slab which may be a bit more reactive as warm temperatures apex on Monday, especially in wind loaded areas near ridgecrest.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–3
    The possibility of large releases remains in shallow snowpack areas. The chance of triggering is highest on steep rocky alpine slopes that have thin and/or variable snow cover.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear skies. Temperatures dropping to around -14C.TUESDAY: Dry and sunny above some valley cloud. Expect cool treeline and alpine temperatures, around -4C. Calm winds.WEDNESDAY: Dry with a mix of sun and cloud. Treeline temperatures around -6C. Light southwesterly winds.THURSDAY: Light snowfall, 2-4 cm. Treeline temperatures around -9C. Light easterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday control work produced wind slab avalanches to size 2 on northeast facing features. A size 2 natural deep persistent slab was also reported on a south facing aspect around 2100 m. We're very grateful that a group of sledders shared a fantastic MIN report about their near miss here. A large avalanche was triggered on a thin, rocky, southwest facing feature near ridgecrest, the photos tell a compelling story about the structurally weak snowpack that exists in many places in the region. On Friday natural avalanches size 1.5 to 2 were reported from northeast through northwest facing terrain at and above treeline. Control work produced storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 on similar aspects. Control work also caused cornices to fail on southeast facing terrain which subsequently produced storm slab avalanches to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

Recent sunshine and warm alpine temperatures have created moist/crusty surfaces on solar aspects. The snow appears to have remained dry on shady aspects. Wind slabs have become difficult to trigger.In shallow snowpack areas, the base of the snowpack may still be composed of weak faceted grains. In deeper snowpack areas, the middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally considered to be well-settled and strong.

Regions covered