Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Jan 16, 2017Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Incoming Mango Express!!! Where it rains, watch out for loose wet snow; where it snows, watch out for storm slabs.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2
    The timing and intensity of the incoming system will affect how much snow (or rain) actually falls during the day... likely not enough to raise avalanche hazard significantly during daylight hours on Monday.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    If we see heavy rainfall, the snow will become loose and wet. 

Avalanche Summary

No new observed.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Big change is coming with a 'Mango Express' from the Philippines. We will shift to a more familiar warm and wet pattern on the South Coast... where umbrellas and rubber boots reign supreme!!! MONDAY: A mix of snow and rain (55mm water equivalent), with freezing rain more likely near Squamish mid-day. Winds light gusting to moderate from the southwest. Freezing level 1500m rising to 2200m and alpine temperatures to +2 Celsius. TUESDAY: Rain, and lots of it (80-120mm). Winds moderate to strong from the south. Freezing level 2700m and alpine high temperatures to +4 Celsius! WEDNESDAY: Still more rain (30-50mm). Winds moderate southwesterly. Alpine temperatures to +4 ; freezing level dropping slightly to 2100m.

Snowpack Summary

We've had some sunshine and warm temperatures (as high as +6 on Grouse mountain on Saturday) through the weekend. Expect to find a lovely sun crust on solar (south) aspects. Earlier in the week, pockets of wind slab formed on exposed aspects at higher elevations. A thick crust can be found 5-10cm below the surface at treeline and below, and has limited the wind redistribution at lower elevations. The new wind slabs have already gained considerable strength but could remain reactive on steeper unsupported terrain at alpine elevations where this crust does not exist. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and stable.

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