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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2016–Jan 3rd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Low Danger does not mean No Danger. Make observations continually as you travel.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Expect mainly clear skies on Sunday with light southeast winds and freezing levels at about 1000m. Cool and unsettled weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday; however, snowfall amounts are highly uncertain. Models are currently suggesting anywhere from 0-15cm for both days. Winds on Monday and Tuesday should be generally moderate for the southeast with freezing levels at about 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

Some isolated skier controlled soft wind slabs released from immediate lee features in the north of the region. I'm sure there was also some loose wet avalanche activity on steep, sun-exposed terrain with warm alpine temperatures and solar radiation over the past few days.

Snowpack Summary

A new layer of surface hoar and near surface facetting has developed, and we will need to track it's distribution before the next snow arrives. The last few days of clear skies, solar radiation, and warm air trapped at higher elevations has settled the recent storm snow. Southerly aspects have seen enough sun and warmth to become moist or wet, and a melt-freeze crust has likely formed with cooling. Some wind transported snow continues to form thin wind slabs on various aspects.The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.